With Meta's Q1 2022 earnings report now out, it's once again time to engage in some Meta-ology. (You know, like Kremlinology, except with a publicly traded company.) The core question for us XR/metaverse obsessives being: What's the install base of the Quest 2, which is central to Meta's metaverse strategy?
Short answer: From what we can tell based on this earnings report, about 11-12 million.
Why? If you want to walk with me in the weeds, read on:
When the Q4 2021 report was published, I estimated the Quest 2 install base was just under 10 million, writing back then:
- Total XR revenue since Q '20 is nearly $3 billion (rounded upward).
- Portal is part of Reality Labs' offerings and as has sold an estimated 1 million units from Q1 '20 to Q4 '21 at an average MSRP of $199 for about $200M in revenue -- leaving likely Quest 2 sales to be the remaining $2.8 billion of the revenue.
- Which means, given the Quest 2's base MSRP of $299, that the total Quest 2 install base is as low as 9.4 million units. Based on earning reports from Q4 2020 and Q1 2021, we were able to estimate that Oculus Quest 2's install base was around 3-4 million as of this April.
Reality Labs' revenue for Q1 22 was $695 million, so once again assuming Quest 2 sales are the bulk of the revenue, that gets us around 2 million units sold for that quarter. (Another mystery: How many of Reality Labs' Ray-Ban Stories "smartglass" units have been sold since going on the market last September?)
Again this is a rough estimate, but it's a safe bet that Zuckerberg's goal of reaching a 10 million install base for the Quest 2has finally been secured. Now the question is whether it is enough, as he believes, an "escape velocity" that will lead to a self-sustaining ecosystem.
Did you just group in software sales and Quest2 sales?
No way are there 12m Quests in the market - software developers and Meta Labs themselves would be shouting from the roof tops if true. Your extrapolation is very wanting!
Posted by: MarkZ | Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 02:38 AM