Don't Expect Apple to Announce an AR/VR Headset -- It's Been Working on an Unannounced HMD Since at Least 2015!

To the disappointment of many XR/Metaverse fans, Apple's slew of announcements at this year's Worldwide Developers Conference did not include anything about its much-rumored, long-awaited VR/AR headset. I'm not surprised, even though the New York Times just reported one is coming out next year. 

Because the thing is, I've been following such dubiously sourced predictions and rumors since at least 2015. Seven years! To wit:

Piper Jaffray senior research analyst Gene Munster said Apple has a small team exploring augmented reality technology. He argued that Apple could help develop AR products that appeal more to consumers than products like Google Glass." (2015)

Apple has also recruited people with expertise in everything from 3D video production to wearable hardware. Among them, the people say: Cody White, former lead engineer of Amazon's Lumberyard virtual reality platform; Duncan McRoberts, Meta's former director of software development; Yury Petrov, a former Oculus researcher; and Avi Bar-Zeev, who worked on the HoloLens and Google Earth [and Linden Lab - WJA].  (2017)

Apple is aiming to release an augmented-reality headset in 2022 and a sleeker pair of AR glasses by 2023, The Information has learned... Apple’s headset, code-named N301, will offer a hybrid of AR and VR capabilities, according to people familiar with the device.  (2019)

TSMC is manufacturing the chips that will be used in the headset, and mass production is said to be at least a year away. The first AR/VR headset could be released as soon as 2022, but the launch could also be pushed back if work on the device is not completed in time.' (2021)

According to today’s report, Apple’s hesitance to debut the headset at WWDC in June is the result of ongoing development challenges related to the device’s software and cameras. Additionally, there are reportedly overheating issues caused by the onboard processor. (January 2022)

And so on, and so forth. Again, the key sign I keep waiting for myself are reports that game/metaverse platform developers are working with Apple on such a headset, and those indicators are still pretty nil.

More than that, Apple is an ancient company by tech standards, and has a long history of failures and successes to draw from, to plan its product launch strategies. Ridiculously profitable now, the company still has little incentive to risk much beyond a basic R&D investment in a technology that's still niche.

Look at this way: Steve Jobs didn't announce the iPhone until 2007, and by then, roughly 10% of the existing cellphone market owned a smartphone. And we are far, far from the point when 10% of the immersive computing market (including consoles and for that matter high-end smartphones) own a VR headset -- which is roughly 15-20 million. If I were Apple, I wouldn't put out a headset until that VR install base gets closer to 50 million (if it does at all). 

Comments

[Adeon]

As a rule, don't trust any claim that reports that a major company (like apple) is working on something that is both AR and VR at the same time. (Or XR).

XR devices have zero consumer use-cases.

[Martin K.]

My best guess is that Apple's forthcoming VR/AR headset is not a consumer product but going to target developers who want to start developing for Apple's AR glasses. If that's the case, then Apple won't be in a hurry to announce the VR/AR headset because there is no point in releasing it many years before the AR glasses are available.

And my best guess for the AR glasses is that they are going to be marketed as a better laptop: smaller (therefore more mobile) and at the same time with much larger screen space: a mobile office that is better than your home office; a mobile cinema that is better than your home cinema.

Games and metaverse apps? I wouldn't be surprised if they were completely absent from the initial marketing campaign for the AR glasses and only added for later campaigns when gaming on AR glasses is already well established.