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Tuesday, June 07, 2022


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I get asked a lot why Second Life didn't work but the new platforms seem to be taking off. Not supported by the data it seems.


What qualifies an active weekly user in this chart?
The Sandbox is still in Alpha. I joined to check it out, I thought it had potential, and then I uninstalled it and I'm waiting for the launch date...Do I count as a lost user, or are you making that assumption? I don't think low user count in this case necessarily correlates with low interest, but it does certainly correlate with the development stage and the lack of open market, at least for the Sandbox.

In order to see the value that investors see in these platforms, you can't just look at the platforms themselves. These guys are banking on broader, long-term trends in the development of the web3 space. To understand any species we need to consider it's place in it's environment, and the same principal can be applied here. Decentraland is being built in expectation of future demand, and I see it being a powerful tool for venture DAOs the future who need collective work and social spaces. If you don't know what Web3 means or what a venture DAO is then you don't have enough context to make any claims about the future of these platforms.

The Web3 space is exploding with naissent possibility for large scale changes, and those take time. I wouldn't be concerning myself with these user numbers for at least another two or three years. This is a huge structural shift and onboarding people to that takes time as well; I think the "hype" was really just a prep course for society on the upcoming paradigm shift.


Personally, I think the crash of Terra/Luna made a lot of people take a hard look at the hype. I believe in the potential of blockchain when used realistically. But when crypto bros are throwing NFTs around like so much bling, even I had to take a step back and reassess.


I see the comment above about Venture DAO’s and I do get that, but DAU and MAU are still king metrics for investors. If those numbers don’t start to pick up in the next 6 months, no investor is going to continue to support the platform. Yes the underlying tech is the investment not the ‘game’ but that means the investors will push to fold the game and repurpose the tech. That’s just smart product leadership/management. I haven’t read the T&C’s on parcel land ownership but I bet there is some discharging of responsibility carefully woven in to ensure they are not liable if they exit the market.

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