The Sandbox & Decentraland Have Huge User Loss -- Blockchain Metaverse Platforms Fall Below 1000 Weekly Active Users! UPDATE: Arcane Research Amends Axie Infinity Usage to Be Much Larger Than Originally Reported

Update, 6/10: In a conversation with Axie Infinity's developer on Twitter, Arcane Research amended its report of Axie Infinity usage, saying it's much more than initially suggested in this infographic; Sky Maven COO Aleksander Leonard Larsen claims current usage is 588K DAU / 1.5M MAU. Read this post for more details.  

Many crypto enthusiasts insist that NFTs and the blockchain are an integral part of the Metaverse, but somewhere along the way, actual consumers did not get that memo. Metaverse developer Rafael Brown just shared this rather jaw-dropping chart with me, taken from this in-depth usage report. And while I've previously expressed some skepticism around the Sandbox and Decentraland, the leading blockchain-based metaverse platforms, the active user numbers are even more dire than I last reported:

"They were both sub-1000 per week much of last year, Sandbox spiked to 7000 per week in November and is back down to 1000 per week or less, " as Rafael summarizes. "Decentraland spiked to 2000 per week in November and is back down well below 1000 per week." (Also note the now-miniscule weekly usage of Axie Infinity, once a darling of "play to earn" advocates. NOTE: See update above.)

I cannot emphasize enough how small these usage numbers are. For instance, VRChat and metaverse grandaddy Second Life each typically have peak daily concurrent users of 30,000+. (And often much more than that.)

But within the blockchain industry, Rafael observes, the paltry user numbers for The Sandbox and Decentraland aren't seen as concerning: "[T]hey just see it as the very early part of their pre-ordained growth to take over the world, whereas I see it as numbers that are so small as to be unsustainable."

A longtime member of the game industry and frequent conference speaker, he believes continued enthusiasm for blockchain games is not coming from game developers per se:

"What I found in the game industry is that most of the people who are very pro-NFT are former mobile games executives who are getting hooked into investor money to do things with NFTs but generally are detached from the actual development and inner workings of the products that they push," as he puts it. Beyond people actively seeking venture capital, "we don’t really see that much new or useful that they do."

To me the virtual community (or lack of one) is the real telltale sign here. I still think Decentraland in particular has some very interesting ideas around ownership and virtual world management, ideas that echo the original Metaverse conception from Snow Crash.  But when a community of engaged users doesn't grow and sustain around those ideas -- despite much media hype -- it's time consider what in the vision might be missing.

Update,  June 8: More analysis here. 

Comments

[Dave]

I get asked a lot why Second Life didn't work but the new platforms seem to be taking off. Not supported by the data it seems.

[Mitch]

What qualifies an active weekly user in this chart?
The Sandbox is still in Alpha. I joined to check it out, I thought it had potential, and then I uninstalled it and I'm waiting for the launch date...Do I count as a lost user, or are you making that assumption? I don't think low user count in this case necessarily correlates with low interest, but it does certainly correlate with the development stage and the lack of open market, at least for the Sandbox.

In order to see the value that investors see in these platforms, you can't just look at the platforms themselves. These guys are banking on broader, long-term trends in the development of the web3 space. To understand any species we need to consider it's place in it's environment, and the same principal can be applied here. Decentraland is being built in expectation of future demand, and I see it being a powerful tool for venture DAOs the future who need collective work and social spaces. If you don't know what Web3 means or what a venture DAO is then you don't have enough context to make any claims about the future of these platforms.

The Web3 space is exploding with naissent possibility for large scale changes, and those take time. I wouldn't be concerning myself with these user numbers for at least another two or three years. This is a huge structural shift and onboarding people to that takes time as well; I think the "hype" was really just a prep course for society on the upcoming paradigm shift.

[Joey1058]

Personally, I think the crash of Terra/Luna made a lot of people take a hard look at the hype. I believe in the potential of blockchain when used realistically. But when crypto bros are throwing NFTs around like so much bling, even I had to take a step back and reassess.

[Dee]

I see the comment above about Venture DAO’s and I do get that, but DAU and MAU are still king metrics for investors. If those numbers don’t start to pick up in the next 6 months, no investor is going to continue to support the platform. Yes the underlying tech is the investment not the ‘game’ but that means the investors will push to fold the game and repurpose the tech. That’s just smart product leadership/management. I haven’t read the T&C’s on parcel land ownership but I bet there is some discharging of responsibility carefully woven in to ensure they are not liable if they exit the market.