« Incredible Second Life Fan Tributes to Music Videos by j-hope of BTS | Main | Fantastic Friday Fashion Ideas for Male Avatars from an Annoying Ram »

Thursday, July 28, 2022

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Kitty Revolver

don't forget he is raising the price to $400

Zack

Also, consider Meta might actually experience terrible numbers of ACTIVE users... I personaly worked in VR since DK2 days, 2015 or so. I own a Quest 1, and although I believe in this tech's future, I still have to fight my way into my next VR session, every not so often time I decide to wear it...

So only guessing here... if say 50%+ of Quest2 owners don't even use their headsets past the first 30 hours of "novelty and excitement" phase... THAT would be really embarassing for them... and I feel that's the reason why 10M units is not enough to have a self-sustaining ecosystem...

Adeon Writer

I don't think it's fair to compare it to consoles since those are just new, iterative models in an already established industry. Facebook's leading the way pushing a new technology instead of an upgrade.

seph

When you consider from the beginning when Oculus was purchased Mark said and understood VR wouldn't be popular until 10-20 years into the future it makes sense why they don't care a ton about the success or failure of existing hardware and software.

You mentioned game consoles; VR is at a stage of the Philips CD-i, TurboGrafx-CD and Sega CD. We might still have an Atari Jaguar and Sega Saturn to go before VR has its Playstation moment years from now.

I don't know that VR and AR headsets are as obvious an eventuality as disc game consoles were, but it is perfectly normal for new tech to start off clunky and expensive before the stars align and it pays off big for some company.

Meta understands that the Quest is at best the Palm Pilot of VR, so why celebrate when the world's still Nokia? What they really care about is iterating until they've made the iPhone of VR too, which is why they've been talking about their four latest hardware prototypes more than anything with the Quest.

Martin K.

Zack has a good point about active users.

Another point might be that 10 million Oculus users is a fuzzy number: Does it include Oculus Rift (S)? Does it include Quest users who use Oculus Link?

And yet another point is this: 10 million active users is not a completely arbitrary number. It's Meta's estimate for when there is a self-sustaining ecosystem. In Zuckerberg's words:

> Once we get to, and cross, this threshold [of 10 million users], we think the content and the ecosystem will just explode

(a bit after https://youtu.be/o7OpS7pZ5ok?t=330 )

So, if they reach 10 million users but no content explosion is following, that would just mean that they were wrong about that estimate. And, of course, the next question that people would ask is: if 10 millions are not enough, are 20 millions enough? 50? 100? And why should we trust your answer today, when you have been wrong about it in the past?

And who can say that they are already seeing that content explosion coming? The 9 most popular "apps" on Meta Quest remind me of the good old days of the Oculus Go ( https://www.oculus.com/experiences/quest/section/1453026811734318/ ); the top 3 games on Meta Quest are all older than 3 years ( https://www.oculus.com/experiences/quest/section/891919991406810/ ). That doesn't mean that we won't see that content explosion in one or two years and the estimate of 10 million users is actually correct; but it's too early to tell.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Your Information

(Name is required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

Wagner James Au
Wagner James "Hamlet" Au
Dutchie Evergreen Slideshow 29112021
my site ... ... ...

PC/Mac readers recommend for SL:

Classic New World Notes stories:

Linden Limit Libertarianism: Metaverse community management illustrates the problems with laissez faire governance (2008)

The Husband That Eshi Made: Metaverse artist, grieving for her dead husband, recreates him as an avatar (2008)

Labor Union Protesters Converge On IBM's Metaverse Campus: Leaders Claim Success, 1850 Total Attendees (Including Giant Banana & Talking Triangle) (2007)

All About My Avatar: The story behind amazing strange avatars (2007)

Fighting the Front: When fascists open an HQ in Second Life, chaos and exploding pigs ensue (2007)

Copying a Controversy: Copyright concerns come to the Metaverse via... the CopyBot! (2006)

The Penguin & the Zookeeper: Just another unlikely friendship formed in The Metaverse (2006)

"—And He Rezzed a Crooked House—": Mathematician makes a tesseract in the Metaverse — watch the videos! (2006)

Guarding Darfur: Virtual super heroes rally to protect a real world activist site (2006)

The Skin You're In: How virtual world avatar options expose real world racism (2006)

Making Love: When virtual sex gets real (2005)

Watching the Detectives: How to honeytrap a cheater in the Metaverse (2005)

The Freeform Identity of Eboni Khan: First-hand account of the Black user experience in virtual worlds (2005)

Man on Man and Woman on Woman: Just another gender-bending avatar love story, with a twist (2005)

The Nine Souls of Wilde Cunningham: A collective of severely disabled people share the same avatar (2004)

Falling for Eddie: Two shy artists divided by an ocean literally create a new life for each other (2004)

War of the Jessie Wall: Battle over virtual borders -- and real war in Iraq (2003)

Home for the Homeless: Creating a virtual mansion despite the most challenging circumstances (2003)

Newstex_Author_Badge-Color 240px