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Thursday, July 28, 2022

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Kitty Revolver

don't forget he is raising the price to $400

Zack

Also, consider Meta might actually experience terrible numbers of ACTIVE users... I personaly worked in VR since DK2 days, 2015 or so. I own a Quest 1, and although I believe in this tech's future, I still have to fight my way into my next VR session, every not so often time I decide to wear it...

So only guessing here... if say 50%+ of Quest2 owners don't even use their headsets past the first 30 hours of "novelty and excitement" phase... THAT would be really embarassing for them... and I feel that's the reason why 10M units is not enough to have a self-sustaining ecosystem...

Adeon Writer

I don't think it's fair to compare it to consoles since those are just new, iterative models in an already established industry. Facebook's leading the way pushing a new technology instead of an upgrade.

seph

When you consider from the beginning when Oculus was purchased Mark said and understood VR wouldn't be popular until 10-20 years into the future it makes sense why they don't care a ton about the success or failure of existing hardware and software.

You mentioned game consoles; VR is at a stage of the Philips CD-i, TurboGrafx-CD and Sega CD. We might still have an Atari Jaguar and Sega Saturn to go before VR has its Playstation moment years from now.

I don't know that VR and AR headsets are as obvious an eventuality as disc game consoles were, but it is perfectly normal for new tech to start off clunky and expensive before the stars align and it pays off big for some company.

Meta understands that the Quest is at best the Palm Pilot of VR, so why celebrate when the world's still Nokia? What they really care about is iterating until they've made the iPhone of VR too, which is why they've been talking about their four latest hardware prototypes more than anything with the Quest.

Martin K.

Zack has a good point about active users.

Another point might be that 10 million Oculus users is a fuzzy number: Does it include Oculus Rift (S)? Does it include Quest users who use Oculus Link?

And yet another point is this: 10 million active users is not a completely arbitrary number. It's Meta's estimate for when there is a self-sustaining ecosystem. In Zuckerberg's words:

> Once we get to, and cross, this threshold [of 10 million users], we think the content and the ecosystem will just explode

(a bit after https://youtu.be/o7OpS7pZ5ok?t=330 )

So, if they reach 10 million users but no content explosion is following, that would just mean that they were wrong about that estimate. And, of course, the next question that people would ask is: if 10 millions are not enough, are 20 millions enough? 50? 100? And why should we trust your answer today, when you have been wrong about it in the past?

And who can say that they are already seeing that content explosion coming? The 9 most popular "apps" on Meta Quest remind me of the good old days of the Oculus Go ( https://www.oculus.com/experiences/quest/section/1453026811734318/ ); the top 3 games on Meta Quest are all older than 3 years ( https://www.oculus.com/experiences/quest/section/891919991406810/ ). That doesn't mean that we won't see that content explosion in one or two years and the estimate of 10 million users is actually correct; but it's too early to tell.

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