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Friday, December 29, 2023


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Martin K.

My predictions:

Apple releases Vision Pro, sells all devices that they produce, and cannot always meet demand.

Meta releases a new cheap Quest headset with optional controllers, better mixed reality than Quest 2, and better software compatibility to Quest 3 than Quest 2.

Valve announces a new VR headset with mixed reality capabilities.

During most of 2024, Roblox's native Quest app stays ahead of Rec Room and VRChat in Meta's "Most Popular" game category.

Meta does not revive the "Builder Tracks" of the Oculus Start and Oculus Launch Pad programs for developing in Horizon Worlds, and does not hold new building competitions in Horizon Worlds with significant cash prizes.

Ready at Dawn announces a new game for Quest.

Matthew Hawn

Two predictions:

1. We get a solid UGC commercial hit on UEFN - built in their Creative 2.0 tools- that *isnt* from Epic Games. Keep an eye on Cabbage Systems out of Japan. Read Simon Carless's DiscoverCo newsletter for really excellent coverage of the games space - https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/fortnite-creative-20-battle-stories

2. The focus on populating 3d worlds with AI characters fails to ignite anyone's interest.
Why? NPCs without real storytelling frameworks and actual plots are just as boring as empty 3d worlds. We need the energy and revolution of 60s and 70s indie Hollywood for the metaverse/game world (as chronicled in Peter Biskin's excellent Easy Riders, Raging Bulls : (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easy_Riders,_Raging_Bulls)


I have my doubts about creating games inside new virtual worlds being main feature of "Everywhere" metaverse project - yes, Epic allows this with UEFN in Creative 2.0 but this only possible because there are already millions of players in Fortnite ecosystem and there are already many gamedevs familiar with Unreal Engine toolset; without those millions of players there it will be like it was in "Blue Mars" - fifteen years ago they're provided Cryengine 2 based toolset to create own mini-games and business in own locations, but in the end this world failed - amount of effort & skills needed to create own game inside "Blue Mars" was huge and if you can do it - why tie your game to almost empty new virtual world instead of creating your game on Unity/Unreal and selling it on Steam and so on? It took me few months to understand that before I quit.

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