My Metaverse Predictions for 2024. What Are Yours? UPDATE: Added Matthew Ball's Own Forecasts Based on Mine!

Some predictions for 2024 before we hit the New Year:

A new, well-funded metaverse platform launches. Likeliest candidates include Everywhere from Grand Theft Auto veterans and Playable Worlds from Raph Koster and crew. I say "well-funded" because we also sure to see some bootstrapped or crowdfunded projects hit the market as well. (I may know of some!)

A leading metaverse platform start-up is acquired or goes on an IPO track. Here some probable candidates are Fortnite developer Epic (still a private company) and Rec Room, which worked with Apple to integrate with the coming VisionPro.

Speaking of which...

Apple's VisionPro goes on sale, sells between 100K-250K units in 2024. This might seem like a small number, but at $3500 and a completely new device/platform for Apple, that would be quite impression. 

Roblox MAU passes US population. This prediction feels a bit like a cheat, since Roblox passed 300 million MAU earlier this year, but hopefully this milestone will force a reconsideration of that whole false "the Metaverse is dead" narrative. 

Thanks to the launch of its mobile app, Second Life increases peak CCU by at least 20%.  Jury is still out whether Second Life's upcoming iOS/Android app actually grows the total user base with new users (especially if the initial launch targets existing users) but I do think we'll see it enabling more of the existing user base log into SL more often. Peak Second Life concurrency is now around 50,000 (hat tip: Daniel), so growing that by 20% to 60,000 seems quite feasible!

How about you, lovely reader? Post your own predictions for highlighting next week, the more specific and easy to validate, the better!

Update, 1/2/2004: On my LinkedIn post on these predictions, The Metaverse author Matt Ball added his own forecasts on top my forecasts:

• I'm going to bet Overdare for new platform (Q2!)
• Going to bet no metaverse platform is acquired or sold (caveat is firesale)
• Vision Pro I'll take big over [my 100-250K forecast]
• Roblox MAU [over US population of 332 million] probably before Q2E

Add your own in Comments for highlighting later this week!

Comments

[Martin K.]

My predictions:

Apple releases Vision Pro, sells all devices that they produce, and cannot always meet demand.

Meta releases a new cheap Quest headset with optional controllers, better mixed reality than Quest 2, and better software compatibility to Quest 3 than Quest 2.

Valve announces a new VR headset with mixed reality capabilities.

During most of 2024, Roblox's native Quest app stays ahead of Rec Room and VRChat in Meta's "Most Popular" game category.

Meta does not revive the "Builder Tracks" of the Oculus Start and Oculus Launch Pad programs for developing in Horizon Worlds, and does not hold new building competitions in Horizon Worlds with significant cash prizes.

Ready at Dawn announces a new game for Quest.

[Matthew Hawn]

Two predictions:

1. We get a solid UGC commercial hit on UEFN - built in their Creative 2.0 tools- that *isnt* from Epic Games. Keep an eye on Cabbage Systems out of Japan. Read Simon Carless's DiscoverCo newsletter for really excellent coverage of the games space - https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/fortnite-creative-20-battle-stories

2. The focus on populating 3d worlds with AI characters fails to ignite anyone's interest.
Why? NPCs without real storytelling frameworks and actual plots are just as boring as empty 3d worlds. We need the energy and revolution of 60s and 70s indie Hollywood for the metaverse/game world (as chronicled in Peter Biskin's excellent Easy Riders, Raging Bulls : (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easy_Riders,_Raging_Bulls)

[Lex4art]

I have my doubts about creating games inside new virtual worlds being main feature of "Everywhere" metaverse project - yes, Epic allows this with UEFN in Creative 2.0 but this only possible because there are already millions of players in Fortnite ecosystem and there are already many gamedevs familiar with Unreal Engine toolset; without those millions of players there it will be like it was in "Blue Mars" - fifteen years ago they're provided Cryengine 2 based toolset to create own mini-games and business in own locations, but in the end this world failed - amount of effort & skills needed to create own game inside "Blue Mars" was huge and if you can do it - why tie your game to almost empty new virtual world instead of creating your game on Unity/Unreal and selling it on Steam and so on? It took me few months to understand that before I quit.