Top Apple Analyst Forecasts Vision Pro to Sell 250K Units This Year -- In Line With My Prediction in January

Tantalizing new tidbit from the largely reliable analyst Ming-Chi Kuo and MacRumors:

While there was speculation about how many people only bought Vision Pro to experience it before sending it back it at the end of the 14-day return window, he estimates that the current return rate has dropped to just 1%… 

Kuo said that current estimates of 2024 sales are considerably higher than Apple originally expected, though the ranges he cites are large: "U.S. shipments are expected to be 200,000–250,000 units this year, better than Apple’s original estimate of 150,000–200,000 units, but this is still a niche market."

Emphasis mine. Speaking of which, at the risk of a totally annoying flex, here's what I wrote in January:

The basic fact that an augmented/mixed reality headset device costing some $3500, even from Apple, will only attract the hardest of hardcore consumers/developers. My prediction from [December 2023], that the Vision Pro will sell under 250,000 units in the first year, still sounds right -- and is actually on the optimistic side. 

I can't claim the inside sources and expertise of Kuo and Mac Rumors, but I have been burned by 10+ years of multiple HMD launches which were forecast to Transform the Industry Forever and Replace the Smartphone. To wit:

• Google Glass, retailing at $1500, only sold a reported 10,000 units its first year of launch in 2012.
• Microsoft HoloLens, first sold in a developer edition for $3000, only sold around 50,000 units in its first two years (2016/2017).
• The Magic Leap One Creator Edition, launched in 2018 for $2,295, only sold 6,000 units in its first 6 months. Notably, the startup expected to sell "at least" 1 million units in its first year. 

And these three fizzly launches happened despite the firepower of Google and Microsoft, and in Magic Leap's case, funding of $1.4 billion, with backing from Google, AT&T, and a who's who of Valley investors. I fully accept the premise that Apple will do a far, far better job at execution, creating a genuinely, magically appealing device. But even if that's the case, the high cost and historically low appeal of the form factor will still likely limit its first year sales. (And probably be a permanent barrier to mass market sales into the long term.)

The good news is actually that Apple itself is forecasting first year sales to be modest (according to Kuo). Again, that's probably why they called it the Vision Pro. But we'd be wise to keep our own expectations for the Vision Pro about as modest as Apple.

Comments

[Martin K.]

> at the risk of a totally annoying flex

Just for the record (because it might become important for your bragging rights): was your prediction (implicitly) about US sales or worldwide sales?

[Enabran Templar]

This thing is the real deal. The developer story is a DREAM. I have been waiting my whole life for it. We have ignition, we await only better miniaturization and improved manufacturing yields for key components.

[Adeon Writer]

Vision Pro is a great proof of concept of what's to come, but the model itself isn't worth a purchase. I don't expect Apple themselves will continue their VR endeavors beyond this one model, but it has a lot of ideas I'm sure other companies will use.