Open Forum: What Are Your SL / Virtual World / Metaverse Predictions for 2025?

Post your own predictions for highlighting here and on New World Notes, the more concrete and easier to validate, the better!*

I'll start with two of my own:

• Thanks to the launch of Linden Lab's mobile app and cloud streaming, Second Life increases peak concurrent users by at least 20%. I predicted something like this would happen last year, but muffed it. But I'm still bullish on this happening in 2025!

• A leading metaverse platform start-up is acquired or goes on an IPO track. This is another prediction I missed in 2024, but I actually think VRChat's painful layoffs last year better position them for this happening (if they want) in 2025.

I'll think of more predictions over the weekend, but want to read yours first!

I usually post an open forum for New Year predictions in late December, by the way, but this time, when I got the sense something big was coming in early January, had to move it to this week.

*I.E., "VisionPro bombs in its second year" is vague, but "VisionPro sells less units in its second year than in its first" is much better. (Not a prediction of mine, though come to think of it, maybe it should be.)

Comments

[Peter Stindberg]

The Lab will purchase Primfeed within the next 24 months. You read it here first.

[Martin K.]

My predictions for last year were so bad that I considered not making any predictions for this year. (Do I deserve 0.5 points for predicting that Valve will not release a new headset? I don't know.) But since we are supposed to learn from our mistakes, let me try again:

1) I double down on my prediction that Valve will not release a new headset in 2025. (Maybe because they wait for micro-OLEDs to become more affordable; maybe because they wait for Meta to stop subsidizing VR headsets like crazy.)

2) Speaking about Meta: Meta will continue shifting its focus from VR/MR headsets to AR glasses. I'm not sure how to measure this - maybe how much time they spend on each of these topics at Meta Connect 2025? Or how many products they release/announce in these categories in 2025? Or how much money they invest in these categories in 2025?

3) Turning to metaverse apps: Meta will triple down on Horizon Worlds in 2025 because ... they don't know what they are doing(?) (My new pet theory is that the way Meta Quest headsets push their (new) users into (free-to-play) Horizon Worlds might not only hurt developers of paid VR apps but the user experience in Horizon World might even hurt the reputation of social VR in general.)

4) The number of "active user accounts" in Roblox will continue to grow, while the interest according to Google trends will continue to stagnate or slowly decline. (Which tells me that most of the growth is due to bots and alt-accounts.)

5) And a "fun" one at the end: Rec Room will not release a fully immersive version on Apple Vision Pro in 2025. (For anyone who has missed it last year, here is a statement by Rec Room's CCO Cameron Brown about the current state: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVEfuf-VDlw&t=579s )

In any case: Happy New Year to everyone!