How Feedback Loops & Interest Algorithms Hurt Metaverse Platforms (Comment of the Week)

Commenting on my post about the failure of Meta to grow Horizon Worlds, longtime reader/veteran technologist Martin K. offers a big picture view impacting multiple metaverse platforms, relating it to recent trends in US society. It helps explain, for example, why Second Life merchandise seems to be 80% fashion/home decor-related, and why VRChat seems largely to be comprised of furry/anime avatars: 

Why does Horizon Worlds not succeed in the same way as Facebook did?

Why is Second Life not able to grow its user base?

Why do so many talented creators leave Rec Room?

Let me zoom out a bit and look at a bigger picture.

Horizon Worlds, Rec Room, Second Life and other metaverse-apps with user-generated content are struggling with growing their user base.

One of my favorite concepts to think about some of these problems is laid out in the book The Big Sort by Bill Bishop published in 2008. One of its themes is political polarization of neighborhoods in the US. The idea is that there are several feedback loops at work that attract more politically aligned neighbors and push out people who don't "fit" into a neighborhood. This results in increasingly homogeneous neighborhoods.

My hypothesis is that there are analogous feedback loops in many UGC metaverse apps that lead to a rather homogeneous user base of each of these apps.

Typically it works like this:

- The app's algorithm recommends content based on what the majority of users are interested in

- Content that serves the interests of a minority of users is recommended less often

- UGC creators who care about the success of their content start creating more content that is recommended by the algorithm more often, i.e., content for the majority of users

- The result is that less content is created for users with special interests

- Those users with special interests leave the platform, which closes the feedback loop because now UGC creators have even less reason to create content for them

For Horizon World and Rec Room, the majority of engaged users are pre-teen children and young teenagers. If you have other interests than those kids, the app is unlikely to recommend interesting content to you and creators are unlikely to create content that is of interest to you. Sorry. Fare well!

How did Facebook (and many other social media) avoid this feedback loop that leads to a homogeneous user base?

By improving their algorithms to personalize recommendations such that users are not pushed out but sorted into fragmented groups based on shared interests. Individual groups might still be very homogeneous (with all the problems that come with that) but Facebook was able to keep the users.

This strategy of serving many special interest groups (instead of focusing exclusively on the interests of the majority of users) has an analogy in online stores: The Long Tail, the 2006 book by Chris Anderson. (On the technical side, this strategy for online stores is closely related to Web 2.0 and the early success of Amazon.) [Also, Anderson discussed the book with me in Second Life back in the day. - WJA]

Do decision makers at Horizon Worlds and Rec Room understand these dynamics? Here is a recent quote by Nick Fajt (CEO of Rec Room) about how their algorithm ranks UGC rooms (i.e. worlds) when recommending them to users:

For a room to rank, it needs a great thumbnail to convert people into visitors. It needs strong engagement once you’re in the room. It needs to be appealing to a wide audience (niche content starts to see its per user metrics degrade with more promotion). If the room has been materially updated recently or newly published - that helps. If the room effectively monetizes – that also helps. Still, it’s really about appeal and engagement of a broad audience. 

I guess, if the CEO of Rec Room does not want their algorithm to recommend "niche content" and wants it to promote worlds that are "appealing to a wide audience", the mentioned feedback loop will keep spinning as long as Rec Room can keep the lights on.

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. (George Santayana)

This is all roughly right, in my view -- a platform's curation algorithms tend to skew toward a plurality of one community at the expense of others. Another factor, as I get into in the book, is how diverse the platform's default avatars are (or are not): Only make them attractive humans, and don't be surprised if most active users want to roleplay a Malibu Barbie and Ken lifestyle.

This also points out the importance of promoting user-driven blogs, videos, and social media, especially those which focus on a niche outside the platform's mainstream. You know, like, well, New World Notes.

Comments

[EmptyEyes]

Metaverses are weird beasts, outside of Fortnite, it feels like they refuse to compete with one another. They're like MMOs in that sense.

They cater very strongly to their existing communities and don't really try and change things too much for fear of upsetting those communities.

Trying to appeal to their "average" player only leads them to a slow death. They should be trying to capture as many diverse player groups as possible.

As you eluded to, social media sites understand this. The average is not truly mass market appeal. Mass market appeal is giving everyone exactly what they're looking for when they're looking for it.

In some mediums you just have to settle for the average, in others, like this space, you don't. If VR Chat, Roblox, Rec Room, Second Life all appeal to different niches then that means there's lots of room to grow. Take something from them all. They are clear targets that you can say "Hey I want to convert some of VR Chat's players" lets *add* x, y, and z to make that happen.

Fortnite does this. I don't play myself (it lacks deep home decorating, character customization, adult content, and RP that's competitive with SL), but you can do so many things in Fortnite. You can build if you want, you can race, you can fight, you can play Rockband, and so much more. There are so many niche audiences that it serves.

Also I'm not saying alienate your core audience. I'm saying that *if* you have the resources, you should grow your audience. Ensure your appeal doesn't drop to core users, appeal to new audiences as well, and then support them both.

Bonus points if you choose to grow into audiences that are at the intersection of large and easy to appeal to.

[Holy chicken]

The CEO of Second Life just taxes his users to death so they leave.
Private regions are on the decline in Second Life and the value of the Linden Dollar is weakening by the week.

Charging users 10% to buy some of your gamecoins so they can shop on your platform is utterly crazy.

Stabbing your large loyal customers who pay you tons of money to lease your private region products in the back is another giant mistake you wish to avoid.

Keep it up with your fees and taxes Linden Lab, you are getting less of them every single day.

The value of the Second Life platform is now so much less compared to the day the current owner bought it, all this comes forward from his stupid policies and greed.

Next month comes Platinum Premium where you can pay 1 Dollar per hour to stream Second Life in a browser compared to the regular 2 Dollar per hour normal premium members have to pay.

Dumb and dumber to utter stupidity.

There is always the mobile app where you can feel your phone heating up until your battery explodes. That will bring in the customers.

[sirhc desantis]

ser EmptyEyes makes some good points especially 'I'm not saying alienate your core audience'. Been in for ... 18 years (ach a third of my adult life and thats being generous) and been palming over a ton a year for close on a decade so I suppose rate as fairly 'core' for a noob.
And rightly, to paraphrase, appealing to different niches does == growth (with the caveat that SL can do anything to a point within limitations - yes we know - so can my adjustable spanner which I also love).

But right now the Lab seen to be setting those two aims in direct conflict. They are losing their core.

Lets see what we have had (not an exhaustive list).. Windlight to EEP, pathfinding, experiences, LSL updates (yay lots), PBR (I can view it but choose not to as its shite)..that small list could fall in to my 'niche'. And not one of them was done well.
And now - Lua (ho hum another box ticked for someone) and the latest Discord ongoing muckup. In realtime and it is hilarious.

I confess I am SLgrumpycore :) Not like there is anywhere else to go to that appeals. But there is only a certain amount of wall to throw at before you realise that nothing is sticking. So yes, a bit 'I hear Tom Wolfe is speaking at Lincoln Center' - and if you get that ref you are as old as I am.