New World Notes

Xiola Linden's Farewell Address to the Second Life Community: Be Open To Change, Be Informed, Be Welcoming

I told you last week that the tech worker formerly known as "Xiola Linden" recently left her role as Community Manager at Linden Lab to take a similar role with mixed reality startup Ubiquity 6. As she did, I asked her if she had any last message for the Second Life community she loves so much. I put it to Xiola this way:

If the SL community asked you the best way to improve itself and make it stronger, what would you suggest?

And this is what she told me -- her farewell address as a Linden, so to speak. 

"Be open to change, but never stop questioning it. Constructive criticism is always going to be received more enthusiastically than attacks. It is very easy to get emotional about something that means so much to us. I know, from my own experiences with Second Life, that it's sometimes difficult to keep calm and Second Life on -- but I also witnessed that sort of emotional response grow into a lot of misinformation and unnecessary panic. So, it's a balance. But it is important and key, I think."

The community should also strive to be more of a community in the best sense of the word, because there's still so much potential in Second Life:

Watch: Oculus Quest Demo Virtually Recreates Developer's Apartment at 1:1 Scale, Adds Interactive Surfaces

Unity Labs developer Greg Madison created this seriously impressive Oculus Quest demo in which he mapped out* his real life apartment with a virtual, 1:1 scale recreation of that apartment -- including the flat surfaces. That way, if you're wearing the Quest, any surface can instantly become an interface for games or other interactive apps:

Why Linden Lab's Beloved Community Manager Joined Mixed Reality Startup Ubiquity6

What you're looking at above is a demo of Display.Land, a mixed reality app from San Francisco-based startup Ubiquity 6, which just hired a new Community Lead: The tech worker formerly known "Xiola Linden", who was Linden Lab's much-loved Community Manager for many years. Just settling into her new office now, Xiola sees much possibility to create unique varieties of virtual social experiences with this technology:

 

"In my experiences with the communities I've had the opportunity to work with," as she puts it to me, "I've talked to a lot of creators who have explained to me the pain points of doing photogrammetry the old way. Seeing how the Displayland app can create a 3D representation of physical spaces and items with the use of a smartphone is so exciting to me.

 

"I think about the possibilities for social experiences within those spaces and I get a little giddy. When I saw the demo [above], I was struck by the idea that artists and professionals can revitalize their workflows with this app. When I got to play with the app, I started to think about what it could mean for creative and creator communities. You can already export your captures from Display.land as a 3D model and use them in compatible 3D software -- which is very exciting for creators of all levels.

 

"Now I am obsessed with the idea of capturing vignettes of my life and how amazing it will be to experience those memories in a three dimensional way... I've already seen some community people from SL checking it out -- which is such a delight to me. I'm really looking forward to so much to come!"

 

Speaking of which, she sees much overlap between the corporate culture of Linden Lab and this much younger startup:

 

Amber Case: Augmented Reality is Hampered By a Zeno's Paradox of Ever-Growing Computational Power

"What’s Holding Augmented Reality Back?" is a new Modus essay by my colleague Amber Case, who makes some novel points that help explain why Magic Leap has, despite $2.6 billion in funding, only sold some 6000 units. It's not just the cost or discomfort with headsets, she argues, but the computing power required to recognize hand gestures and incorporate them into the AR display:

AR advocates often assume gesture control will be the next iteration in user interfaces since it seems so intuitive and natural to human expression. But hand-gesture models and libraries are not uniform. The ambiguous input produced by humans forces the computer to process far more information than a controller with comparatively limited function, like a touchscreen. This makes the interaction prone to a wide range of errors. The user’s background could be too dark, they could be wearing gloves, or they could have hands smaller than those that the device was tested with. This interaction model also likely requires having to train someone to use gestures they’re not yet familiar with, and not everyone will make the gestures in the same way.

... AR devices like Magic Leap and HoloLens struggle with detecting the intersection between hand movements and objects. Awash in the effluvia of reality, the headset cannot always discern that the user is, say, trying to pick up a block, and it forces them to grab it multiple times... Most augmented reality headsets were launched to early adopter enthusiasts and content creators, but even these users quickly found using these devices on a daily basis to be difficult.

I.E., it's not so much that Magic Leap only sold 6000 units, but that those 6000 Magic Leap owners find their own evangelical enthusiasm dampened by the consistent frustration of using it themselves. 

The usual response to this complaint is to say greater computing power will improve the AR user interface over time. But Amber argues that this is an ever-elusive goal:

Despite $2.6 Billion in Funding, Magic Leap Sold Less AR Headsets Than Jeri Ellsworth's Tilt 5 Kickstarter

I've heard rumors to this effect for months, but when The Information reports on it, you can pretty much take it to the bank -- even if it's not much of a deposit:

Magic Leap managed to sell just 6,000 units of its $2,300 Magic Leap One headset in its first six months on sale, a figure made worse by CEO Rony Abovitz’s internal claims that he wanted the startup to sell at least one million units of the device in the first year, a goal the report states he was later convinced to rethink — Abovitz later projected the company would sell 100,000 units in the first year... The company has now raised around $2.6 billion in venture funding from firms like Google, Alibaba and a slew of other investors. 

To put that 6,000 in perspective, Jeri Ellsworth's Tilt 5 Kickstarter recently sold over 6,000 Augmented Reality HMDs in 30 days.

Obviously that's not a completely fair comparison, since Magic Leap's headset is selling for $2,300, as opposed to Tilt 5's $299 entry level price. Then again, you can also say the comparison is unfair in the other direction, since Jeri and her team made these sales as a bootstrapped startup working with a tiny six figure budget, versus Magic Leap working with $2.6 billion dollars from some of the world's top tech companies.

In any case, the repercussions in both directions should be pretty significant:

Why VR/AR Devs Should Stop Referencing Minority Report-ish Gesture Control

"Why Sci-Fi Is Bad for Design" is a new Modus essay (reg. req.) by my colleague Amber Case (a fellow at the Institute for the Future) delving into some classic science fiction movie and TV tropes -- such as Jarvis from Iron Man and Star Trek-esque voice control AI -- that have infected the tech industry for the worse. Another trope she discusses is seriously significant for AR and VR developers: Minority Report-esque gesture control. Here's the problem with that, as she sees it:

Since its debut in 2002, Steven Spielberg’s Minority Report has been an archetypal reference point for technologists enthralled by the way Tom Cruise could manipulate complex data with dramatic swipes of his hands.

But what looks amazing for a few minutes of screentime doesn’t necessarily perform as well offscreen. Can you imagine how sore your muscles would be after using this system for eight hours a day?

And as it happens, she can:

Apple's AR Plan Per The Information: Headset in 2022, Glasses in 2023

Insider tech industry news site The Information has a great scoop on Apple's plans for augmented reality (subscription required), and given The Information's consistently reliable track record, I'm inclined to believe it:

Apple is aiming to release an augmented-reality headset in 2022 and a sleeker pair of AR glasses by 2023, The Information has learned... Apple’s headset, code-named N301, will offer a hybrid of AR and VR capabilities, according to people familiar with the device. It resembles the Oculus Quest, a Facebook virtual reality headset released earlier this year, but with a sleeker design, these people said. Cameras will be mounted on the outside of the device, allowing people to see and interact with their physical surroundings, they said. Apple wants to make heavy use of fabrics and lightweight materials to ensure the device is comfortable to wear for extended periods of time, executives said in the presentation in October.

... In contrast, Apple’s AR glasses, code-named N421, present bigger technical challenges than the headset and are further from release. They are meant to be worn all day, and current prototypes look like high-priced sunglasses with thick frames that house the battery and chips, according to a person who has seen them.

This report contradicts earlier rumors that Apple's AR glasses were coming next year and would be third party (which seemed believable to me at the time). Then again, Apple pushing an AR/VR headset back to 2022 is a good idea, especially if Oculus Quest sales continue to disappoint in the short term; that gives Apple time to reschedule the release of their own headset, as needed.

Another tidbit from The Information addresses AR's "Glasshole" problem -- i.e., how do you project information onto glasses in a social situation without the user appearing to be a disconnected jerk ignoring everyone around them? Apple's apparent solution:

Jeri Ellsworth's Tilt 5 Kickstarter Sells Over 6000 Augmented Reality HMD Units, Raising Nearly 4X Target Goal

With 8 hours left to go, Jeri Ellsworth's Tilt 5 Kickstarter for a new augmented reality system is already a runaway success, raising at least $1,660,865 -- nearly 4X its original $450,000 goal target goal. Even more impressive, she just announced the Kickstarter has sold over 6,000 HMD units.

To put that 6,000+ in perspective, that's nearly as many units sold in Oculus Rift's original Kickstarter (about 6,900), which launched this new generation of VR. And by some industry insider estimates, the extremely well-funded Magic Leap has only sold about 6000-7000 of its own first edition HMD. To be sure, Magic Leap's "Creator Edition" sells for $2,295 and up, as opposed to Tilt 5's $299 entry level price. However, if that estimate is fairly accurate, that still means Tilt 5's install base is competitive with Magic Leap's.

For Jeri, in any case, it's a validation of Tilt 5's vision for augmented reality.

"We're thrilled that the market is hungry for a social AR experiences," as she puts it to me.

To judge the Kickstarter, the social aspect seems important to Tilt 5's success:

Watch: Capture Real World Locations With Your Smartphone & Turn Them Into LEGO-Like Virtual Worlds With New SDK

Some cool videos from our creative teams building with https://t.co/Ob4co4nbsh. Who doesn't love turning a normal sidewalk into a lego land? #arcloud #mirrorworld #everythingisawesome pic.twitter.com/4Yhx6mtbt1

— 6D.ai (@6d_ai) October 14, 2019

Remember 6D.AI, the startup that's creating a 3D mirror world of real life from the input of standard smartphones? The company recently released its SDK, and it makes what you see above possible: Scan a real world location into a 1:1 scale 3D model... then turn into a LEGO-like virtual world.

"It’s all built on our SDK," 6D CEO Matt Miesnieks tells me. "Instead of mesh triangles we draw LEGO blocks." These blocks are the only texture available in the SDK, he adds, but users can create and add their own textures -- opening up incredible opportunities.

Why Apple's Rumored Partnership Third Party AR Glasses Makes Sense

Rumors of Apple's jump into augmented reality glasses keep cropping up, and here's the latest (relatively credible) one:

Apple's augmented reality headset will enter mass production as soon as the fourth quarter of this year in time for an early 2020 launch, according to a new report out today from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo and seen by MacRumors. In his latest research note with TF International Securities, the analyst says Apple will cooperate with third-party brands to launch its first head-mounted AR product in 2020, with Changying Precision tipped to be the main chassis supplier.

I tend to believe this rumor more than most, because it answers the most obvious question: Why would Apple spend billions to manufacture a new hardware device with no proven mass market, but a track history of notorious failure (cough Google cough Glass)?

Answer: