New World Notes

3D File to IRL Manufacturing Could be a Killer Applet for the Metaverse

In the search for the Metaverse's killer app, here's a possible one proposed by "Kyz", who once made a good living from creating virtual world content before moving to physical items:

Probably true that anything digital is the meat of the Metaverse. I don't think car companies in SL or elsewhere managed to sell more cars. It may have helped bands a bit. Didn't seem to help movies market better. Maybe some fashion. Unless everyone is there it's not going to be a sales vehicle.

This is roughly right. Second Life-based expositions for car companies like Nissan didn't generate much sustained traffic (let alone actual sales), and apart from some one-offs like this SL campaign for a Harry Potter movie in IMAX, all the many SL-based marketing campaigns for movies didn't lead to increased theatrical ticket sales. I deeply suspect marketing campaigns on new platforms like ROBLOX and Fortnite (such as this ROBLOX campaign for In the Heights, a recent movie that bombed in the box office) have met a similar, low ROI fate.

So if RL marketing isn't a compelling killer app, is there another? Kyz proposes one, based on their own RL work experience:

In a Virtual World Economy, User-Generated Content Prices Are Controlled by the Company, Not the Market (Comment of the Week)

Really interesting conversation on the problem of virtual currency in virtual economies last week kicked off by "Kyz", who explained how difficult it was for them to reliably run a successful business in a virtual world. Replying to the idea that the value of their content is decided by the market, Kyz goes deeper into the analysis:

That's true to an extent and there are parallels between virtual and real life markets. But there's more to it than just market demand and pricing.

For instance, my SL experience put an extra layer of cost into the mix. Linden Dollars are a product or were, to Linden Lab. The currency wasn't just added to the company as a convenience for users, it was acquired by Linden Lab from someone that discovered that virtual money was itself a product that could be profitable directly or indirectly.

The last part isn't quite accurate but the full story enhances Kyz's argument: Linden Lab reportedly made an offer to the user-made Gaming Open Market, which circa 2004/2005 was a popular platform for the community, then in late 2005, officially productized the Linden Dollar through the launch of the LindeX.

"I mean, I get it," Kyz goes on. "And if I ran a virtual world, creating an extra revenue stream from currency is something I wouldn't lightly ignore." But for content creators like Kyz trying to monetize on the platform, this led to additional hurdles and regulations:

The Real Problem With Virtual Economies is the Virtual Currency (Comment of the Week)

Really great comment from reader "Kyz", a 3D content creator who made an excellent living from the Second Life economy. Commenting on my take on Matthew Ball's analysis of payment options for Metaverse platforms (he basically lands on suggesting that blockchain-based payments may be the best or least worst alternative), Kyz says this:

I don't think the problem is traditional currency and payment systems, rather it's that all these companies develop models where virtual product is worth such small amounts that devaluation of labor is the actual problem. Magnified by some companies that are also using currency itself as product.

For instance, I did pretty well in SL riding on the coattails of the breedables craze. Enough for a couple of full time incomes. The pain point of making money was SL. Between limits, virtual currency converted to real money and the extra steps required.

I did the same at various points for selling content for game engines, just being able to find the trends and fill niches. These markets were much less painful because there was no virtual currency to deal with.

As an example of what Kyz's talking about, take a look at the Unity Asset Store, where creators sell virtual assets to developers across all budget ranges... for real cash.

The problem becomes even more clear, Kyz goes on, when one compares it to selling actual products:

SL Gacha Creators Scramble to Create Gacha-Like Systems Without a Gambling Mechanic Before Linden Lab's September 1 Deadline

Image/system by dazai voom

With Linden Lab banning Gachas in Second Life at the end of this month, " irihapeti" and others have noted the rise of Gacha-ish systems like the one above:

Many professional gacha machine makers have developed conveyor machines ready for the 1 September rollout date.

Those that haven't will have to close down their gacha operations.

The basic conveyor machine will display an item from the set. When the customer purchases the displayed item, the machine will 'randomly choose' the next item to be displayed. Customers can buy it or not as they please.

The items in the conveyor machine can be NoCopy Transfer.

So basically systems like this are Gacha-like, except without a completely randomized reward aspect that made Gachas so popular, and also a form of gambling. (And also, for many, so fun.) It also looks like a direct response to a question fielded by Linden Lab in its original announcement banning gachas:

Four Reasons Why Cloud Streaming is the Best Solution for Making the Metaverse (Comment of the Week)

After thinking about the many technical obstacles facing the creation of an ideal Metaverse, longtime Metaverse developer Lex4art argues that cloud streaming is the best solution we have at our disposal now. Here's his case:

Accessibility & Pricing Flexibility

Anyone can join, hardware requirements are super low (fast enough Internet connection + some kind of display + some kind of input to move/interact with the metaverse). There's also flexibility in monthly fee: the lower the requested rendering quality and lower video stream bitrate (lower traffic), then the less it can cost for the [end user]. Maybe even free connections will be possible for lowest quality. So, if you need quality - pay more. If you don't need it - pick a less fancy solution that still gets job done.

Three more reasons from Mr. Art:

Could Linden Lab Allow Gachas on Private Islands in Second Life Accessible Only to People from Countries Where They're Legal?

Above: Message that a SL user who logged in from a US state that bans skill games received when they tried to teleport to a sim with skill games

Last chance to take New World Notes' survey on how the end of gachas in Second Life will impact the economy of Second Life (if at all). Meantime, reader Frankie Antonioni had this interesting proposal on how SL gachas might continue:

Here is a solution to the new gacha rule. Allow gacha machines on some islands. If gachas are legal in your country, then you can go to gacha islands. The islands would be set at mature, and you will have to have payment info on file. On these islands, you can have gacha malls. People can rent places at these malls. Creators that are from countries, that don't allow gacha machines, can sell them to people that can go to these islands. It could be a 50/50 type deal. The money made would be split by the creator, and by the person that owns the machines. And the people that play the machines, can resell what they win.

Now granted, if you are from a country that doesn't allow gachas, then you can't visit the gacha islands, and you can't play the machines. But they can go to gacha yard sells, and buy gacha items. They just can't play the machines.

I can't speak to the regulatory issues, but Linden Lab already blocks people who haven't verified that they're adults from entering Adult sims, and even (reportedly, see above) blocks people from US states that ban skill games from entering SL sims tagged as having skill games. So Antonioni's proposal at least seems technically possible?

Making the Ideal Metaverse May Require a Breakthrough in Quantum Entanglement Theory (Comments of the Week)

Pictured: From a 2014 Philip Rosedale presentation, in which he describes High Fidelity's goal of achieving "mouth to ear" latency in 100 milliseconds

Excellent reader conversation on my analysis of the networking section of Matthew Ball's analysis. My take is that the unbreakable nature of the speed of light will always hold us back from our ideal vision of the Metaverse. Or as I put it, "When it comes to the metaverse, Einstein is the ultimate cockblocker."

Longtime metaverse evangelist Ian "Epredator" Hughes proposed a cheeky solution:

This speed of light latency problem has me pondering quantum entanglement and instant changes at infinite distances. 

Yes: Making the ultimate metaverse might require learning how to practically leverage quantum entanglement theory -- i.e. a breakthrough in quantum computing that's readily available for consumers. (Which, while I'm not an expert, seems decades away, if ever.)

Fortunately Epredator proposes some more practical solutions that could be implemented now:

Nanite for Unreal 5 May Be Key to Making the Metaverse -- VR, Not So Much

Great comment from reader "Kyz", reflecting on my analysis of Matthew Ball's metaverse primer thus far:

Our limitations are graphics cards and computing power, size of screens and types of display screens. I'm excited about Unreal Engine 5 with Nanite, which helps us down the road of being able to render more rich environments without the cost of so many draw calls, as well as world partitioning for larger worlds, etc.

Watch above to share Kyz's excitement! However, Kyz also adds, in a possible demur to Matthew, VR should not be the metaverse's focus:

Facebook Moving Oculus to Support Industry Standard OpenXR

I usually blog any Facebook/Oculus news with this irresistible pic of Zuckerberg striding like a dictator through the opiated masses in VR, but I'll give him some credit in this case:

Is Linden Lab Making an IMVU-Like "Second Life Lite" for Mobile?

Over in last week's post on how Second Life might find a new audience on mobile, New World Notes' super savvy readers are picking up clues and speculating that Linden Lab is going to -- or at least should -- create what I'd describe as a lightweight, IMVU-like experience for mobile.

Take it away, Pulsar:

They are making dedicated mobile-regions now (just instant messages, but they plan to add a 3D view later). Here is the opportunity to start a sort of new SL from ground up: mobile-avatars on mobile-regions; meanwhile you keep your account, friend list, chat, L$ etc, that keeps you on the SL grid. And you would still be able to use the old style stuff in the old regions as before.

Mobile regions may have a clear grand total upper limit in texture and polygon count, instead of an obscure and exploitable "land impact". And they could be on demand, cutting the costs.

A mobile avatar could be a single item or it could be customizable by replacing the body parts with dressed parts, as other games do. Not that pile of attachments on top of each other that you see in SL. You could still colorize the parts, change head textures etc.

This approach would also make sense from a technical perspective, as "0xc0ffea" explains: