New World Notes

No, Elon Musk, We're Probably Not in a Virtual Simulation

Depicted: Second Life, circa 2014

Elon Musk just made this much-discussed argument:

The strongest argument for us being in a simulation probably is the following. Forty years ago we had pong. Like, two rectangles and a dot. That was what games were.

Now, 40 years later, we have photorealistic, 3D simulations with millions of people playing simultaneously, and it's getting better every year. Soon we'll have virtual reality, augmented reality.

If you assume any rate of improvement at all, then the games will become indistinguishable from reality, even if that rate of advancement drops by a thousand from what it is now. Then you just say, okay, let's imagine it's 10,000 years in the future, which is nothing on the evolutionary scale.

So given that we're clearly on a trajectory to have games that are indistinguishable from reality, and those games could be played on any set-top box or on a PC or whatever, and there would probably be billions of such computers or set-top boxes, it would seem to follow that the odds that we're in base reality is one in billions.

Tell me what's wrong with that argument. Is there a flaw in that argument?

At least three, actually: 

Dear Internet: If You Must, Harass me for What I'm Doing -- Not for What I Am

Janine "Iris Ophelia" Hawkins' ongoing review of gaming and virtual world style

This past weekend I was fortunate enough to be able to participate in a charity streamathon, an event where people essentially play games for an online audience to raise money. I was playing and watching others play alongside a slew of outstanding guests. We raised a hell of a lot of money for an incredibly worthy cause, and the whole thing was a resounding (if exhausting) success. I'm not going to name the event here -- though it's not hard to figure out -- because this post isn't about the streamathon. We contributed to something amazing, and nothing can or should change that.

This post is about the creeps and the jerks; the ones who donate under names like "JanineMakeMeHot", who look for any opportunity to embarrass a woman no matter what the context, who may even think they're being flattering. The people who left their bitter little marks on an otherwise amazing event.

For all I know, this post may be about you.

When It Comes to Fashion, Virtual & Real Are Just About Equal (Comment of Week)

I love the long reader comment thread on last week's post about a study which suggests some people prefer virtual experiences to real ones, because it's just as interesting (if not more so) than the actual post. It also reminds me how lucky I am to write for such a smart and engaged group of readers. (Dammit I fricking love you guys.) I'm tempted to say all the comments constitute last week's Comment of the Week, but let me highlight this one from Ezra, on the appeal of virtual fashion:

"I bet a lot of people using Second Life spend more money on virtual clothes than real clothes some months. Why? A lot of us, especially those of us that live in temperate places, don't buy clothes at all based off of physical functions like keeping warm or protected anymore. The bulk of our closets are items we chose based on shape, colors and patterns, and most important of all how we believe thousands of passerbyers in the streets will like them when seen but never touched.

"So what makes a real shirt more 'real' than a virtual one in terms of value when anything physical doesn't play a part?

We're Not Ready for an Era Where People Prefer Virtual Experiences to Real Ones -- But That Era Seems to Be Here

An academic study co-authored last year by leading virtual world academic Edward Castronova suggests that people get more happiness from being in Second Life than they do from good news in their real life. In other words, as he wrote on his blog, "Second Life is providing a big chunk of life satisfaction, just as big as the factors that previous researchers on life satisfaction have found were the 'biggies,' like health, employment, and family relationships."

I deeply suspect this is also true for people who extensively play other immersive virtual worlds and MMOs with similar features. Which would mean that for tens of millions of people, this famous scene (above) from The Matrix, in which a man betrays his real life friends for the chance at having a better virtual life, is relevant to their actual choices.

Of course, I think few MMO/virtual world players would make as stark and serious a choice as Cypher did, but at the same time, we are already well acquainted with many who do sacrifice aspects of their real life for their virtual one -- jobs and chores skipped, friends and loved ones ignored, so some of us could spend just a little more time socializing or gaming in a 3D digital landscape that doesn't strictly exist. This also calls the mind the "experience machine" thought experiment put forth by philosopher Robert Nozick, way back in the 70s:

Should We Talk Less About the Metaverse and More About Shared Creative Spaces?

"The metaverse is dead. Long live shared creative spaces!" is the provocative title of a recent post on MixedRealities, which is Roland Legrand's thoughts on the new products from Linden Lab like Patterns and Creatorverse, and for that matter, the text-based creative platforms coming from Linden soon. As the company does this, it's re-branded itself as a "Maker of Shared Creative Spaces", which Legrand likes as a broader ideal:

I do like this notion of virtual shared creative spaces. It is exactly what we’ll need in many different contexts, as globalization increases dramatically and the technological possibilities multiply exponentially.

I agree. And unlike the "metaverse" concept, which Second Life was not originally designed to be, and is not being widely embraced in any case (at least not yet), talking about SL in terms of a shared creative space connects it not only to Linden Lab's other products, but creative sandbox games like Minecraft, or Roblox, or Garry's Mod, and many many more that have (I'd very roughly estimate) about 20 million total users. And if we start talking and thinking about Second Life on that continuum, I think we get at the crucial element that makes SL powerful, while connecting it in comparison to other shared creative spaces.

Should We Call This a Screen Capture or a Photograph? Hint: Neither (at Least for Now)

Honour Mcmillan has a very interesting post and reader comment thread about images like the one you see above, which she took in the 3D virtual world of Second Life. Generally this means it would be called a screen capture or a screen shot, but then, as she explains, that doesn't convey the artistry she brings to an image like it, or the fact that what she's doing isn't too dissimilar from what an artist in, say, Focus, an art photography magazine, does. As she puts it:

In my mind “screen capture” implies no thought. I’m old enough that this function is synonymous with “screen print” – the mindless touch of a button on the keyboard designed for showing forms and fields and writing user manuals. I have enough trouble reconciling the fact that the content is created by real artists and I just capture it... However, I don’t want to continue pretending that I’m a “photographer”. It’s not right.

Her thoughts attract a fairly adamant reaction from readers, many of whom adamantly insist that of course she's a photographer. I don't have a strong opinion either way, and looking back at recent posts, I use the terms interchangeably, depending on the context: I described this highly artistic SL fashion image as a "screenshot" just days after saying the online game DayZ has a war "photographer". However, if I was to register an initial opinion, it'd go something like this:

Desmond Shang on Why Augmented Reality Offers Massive Potential for SL's Great Content Creators (NWN Guest Post)

In this important guest post for New World Notes, famed steampunk land baron Desmond “the Guvnah” Shang argues that the future of great potential is coming for the top content creators of worlds like Second Life

It may surprise some, but Second Life will turn out to matter greatly in the future. And not just as a yesterday thing, but going forward. And the things you have learned on the grid will matter, as much or more than the platform itself. For the entire real world is about to change, and make all those nights you’ve spent at the computer building your virtual brand in SL highly relevant.

And the best way to explain is not to talk about Second Life at all:

Conspiracy Keanu Asks a Crucial Question

Inspired by my favorite new meme, Conspiracy Keanu. Fellow SL bloggers and Flickeristas, I'd love to see more metaverse-related Keanu questions. Because you know, that'd just be so Keanu. (And link to my favorites, he blatantly hinted.)

Click here for copious Keanu whoa-ness, and to create some Conspiracy Keanus of your own.

Virtual World Pioneer Suggests There's No "Meaningful Distinction" Between Second Life & FarmVille - Agree?

Edward Castronova, the economics and telecommunications professor who did so much to innovate the serious study of virtual worlds, recently wrote a provocative post on Terra Nova, the group blog he co-founded which has done so much to create an academic following for virtual worlds study. In clarifying the focus of Terra Nova at a time many have decided "virtual worlds are dead" (as one member put it), Castronova wrote this:

"It has come to our attention that some in the Terra Nova community have been laboring under the misapprehension that there is a meaningful ontological distinction between, say, Second Life and FarmVille. We regret the confusion and would like to clarify that discussion here is and always has been open to any topic related to digitally mediated spaces dedicated primarily to forms of social play, generously defined."

By implication, Ed is suggesting that there is no meaningful ontological distinction between FarmVille and Second Life. Which might seem like a bold thing to say. And while I think "ontological" is setting the bar a bit too high, I'd put it this way: As both are largely experienced, Second Life and FarmVille have more similarities, than differences.

After all, how is Second Life clearly different from FarmVille? Some might argue in these ways:

Metaphysics of Metaverse Art: Nishi's "Transubstantiation"

The Second Life artist known as Soror Nishi has some thought-provoking thoughts on the metaphysics of her metaverse-based art, in particular her latest work, "Transubstantiation" [Click here to teleport to location in Second Life], taken from the Christian belief in the divine imbued in the real, as it relates to the prim, the fundamental, irreducible building blocks of Second Life:

The Prim contains my body and my blood... Every Prim I build is actually a REAL part of my psyche... and so this artistic process is a transubstantiation. I am a god, The Prim is a god, I am in The Prim and I manifest through Transubstantiation.

To see that thought in action, in Ms. Nishi's radiantly beautiful work, click the video above, shot by Botgirl Questi, appropriately accompanied by the singing of the late Sufi master Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan.