New World Notes

Signs of SL Recession: Despite 30K Users & $300K in Transactions, Second Life Shopping Delivery Service Pocket Gacha Closes

Pocket Gachas, a HUD-based remote delivery system for Second Life's hugely popular gachas, was attracting thousands of users immediately after its launch last year, but in a sign of a shaky or rapidly changing in-game economy, the service just announced its closure:

There is no doubt as well that SL commerce is changing. The boom-boom days are long in the past. While perhaps the top 1% of brands might still be doing fine (though I’m certain not selling what they once were) the new and emerging brands are finding it harder and harder to connect with shoppers. The drastic drop in new users in SL and an inability to retain these avatars has led all of us to this juncture. In some ways we have reached the point where we are just selling sneakers to each other. Or, to better quote the old adage, “delivering pizzas to each other.” Because, really, how many sofas can one own after years in SL? The people at Linden Lab are smart. I am sure they know this as well and are working on solutions. Let’s all hope.

The finale to this perfect storm is that the world of events is becoming saturated to the point of being destructive to one another along with the brands that try to balance doing them. While the old-line events may thrive to a point (I think, again, not like they once did) new ones arise it seems each and every day and SL is starting to feel like a town of 50K people that has built 50 shopping malls. It’s just too much for the current market.

This closure comes despite Pocket Gacha and a related HUD being used by a reported 30,000 unique users transacting over $300,000.00 "DOLLARS…not Linden!" across the service.  What Pocket Gacha lead developer Oobleck Allagash tells me suggests a larger economic trend I've also noted elsewhere -- less emphasis on virtual homemaking, and more on Second Life as a social media experience:

EU Regulators Preparing to Address Loot Boxes; SL Gachas Likely Affected

Pictured: Popular SL Gacha from 2014

If you're a developer or consumer of Second Life's incredibly popular gachas, keep your eye on this upcoming regulation:

15 gambling regulators from Europe and one from the US have together announced they will "address the risks created by the blurring of lines between gaming and gambling". The collaborative effort, organized at the 2018 Gambling Regulators European Forum, includes signatories from the UK, France, Ireland, Spain, and even the US (via the Washington State Gambling Commission). The key focus for the parties involved appears to be "tackling unlicensed third-party websites offering illegal gambling linked to popular video games"

As PC Gamer reported earlier this year, any regulation this forum proposes will likely impact SL gachas:

Linden Lab Secretly Building New SL Continent With Friendly Emoji Island

New analysis of the Second LIfe grid from expert Tyche Shepherd uncovers a secret new continent emerging from the digital waters:

A brand new 80 region terraformed continent appeared on the grid last week. Currently closed to the public it's composed of 80 moderate rated contiguous regions names SSP1 to SSP80, I'm assuming these are Lab owned (though it's nearest neighbours are Private Estates) and have marked them as Linden Lab owned.

For her Grid Survey analytics reports, Tyche has created a fleet of bots which scout the Second Life grid, looking for new sims and the disappearance of old ones. (Though thanks to the recent discount on sims, less are disappearing lately.) And since those bots are usually first to spot new land, the little emoji island seems to be a friendly trolling message directed specifically at Tyche:

Now Popular in Second Life: Realistic Imperfection, Including Cellulite & Stretch Marks for Female Avatars

From Izzie Button's sales blog

There's a hot new avatar fashion enhancement in the virtual world of Second Life, but it's more real than many might expect. Ever since creator Izzie Button put her Cellulite & Stretch Marks for female avatars on sale last week, they've been moving like mad.

"Sales have been really good," she tells me, "a lot better than expected to be honest. On SL Marketplace, it is my #1 best selling item now, with four 5-star reviews in only 1 day. I've gotten mainly positive feedback from customers about them and lots of requests to do more stretch marks/cellulite on other body parts too."

It's an unexpected trend in an online world where the avatar beauty standard skews to thin young women with nary a blemish or ounce of fat anywhere. And, in fact, she's had some complaints:

Cassie's Clips: Exploring the SL Shopping Extravaganza of Equal 10

This week exclusive to New World Notes, beloved SL YouTuber Cassie Middles visits Equal 10, the shopping extravaganza event happening now, a showcase featuring dozens of well-known Second Life style brands, including clothing, hair styles, skins, and make-up for male and female avatars, plus lifestyle accessories for both. (Direct teleport here.)

"It's a great shopping event for both genders, making sure not to exclude anyone and make it female dominated, while still featuring amazing designers," Cassie tells me. "They're also a monthly event and update their website every month with designer ads, so you can easily teleport to the ones on your shopping list at the landing point instead of struggling through any lag (though I had none)." 

 

One tip Cassie has for future Eleven event participants:

Linden Dollar Increase Threatens Second Life's Impulse-Driven Economy (Comment of the Week)

While many readers are dismissive of concerns over Linden Lab's increase of L$ purchase fees, Clara Seller points out a subtle problem:

It's the intimate relationship between Linden Lab and a person's credit card that keeps all of this going. This comment thread is being very condescending to those who have become the lowest on the Second Life social food chain. The social food chain isn't the real power of the economy. It's just the pretend one created by the most visible residents.

Impulse buying is everything. Kill it at the peril of of everything. Without impulse buying, you just have a fruitless small town of big egos like Sansar.

The last thing you want is to force your little people to think about spending their money on "nothing". School them and talk down to them until they wake up. Then it's "game over" for everyone.

Maybe not "game over", but she's right that even a small price increase can cause many people to reconsider where they spend their discretionary income. It's why, for example, that free-to-play mobile games -- despite being loaded down with intrusive ads and constant IAP offers -- are much more popular than premium mobile games. Even putting a $1.99 or 99 cent price tag on an app causes most consumers to clutch their wallet.

L$ Transaction Increase: Not Much in Real Dollars, But Quite A Lot Relative to Second Life Economy

Linden Lab's increase of Linden Dollars purchase orders to  $1.49 per transaction (compared to the previous rate of 99 cents per transaction) may not seem like a lot, but the way Angelina Sinclair does the math, it may actually seem like quite a lot:

This transaction fee increase is insane. I am one of those impulse buyers of Lindens usually doing $10 or $20 a pop. For me, SL is my fun. It is like I spent that money at a bar getting a few drinks. However, in that same scenario it is like I am getting a drink or two less because of a sudden, poorly explained price increase. Why? It doesn't make sense.

Now consider this. If I were to make sure my [SL] purchases were still exactly $10 or $20 and using $20 as an example, I would get (L$4627L). If it was the old 30 cent fee then that would be (L$4925). A different of L$302L!

Even if you consider the previous fee of 99 cents that's (L$4752) or a L$125 difference. Whether L$125 or L$302 that's enough to buy something simple from the [SL]  Marketplace.

The costs increase considerably when those are purchases are added up over time:

Linden Lab's Discounts for Second Life Sims Will Help the Virtual Economy Flourish -- Or Destroy It! (Comments of the Week)

Interesting (if predictable) difference of reader opinion about Linden Lab's 15% discount on sim tier/increase on L$ purchase fees, announced last week. Longtime SLer David Cartier argues it will encourage a flourishing of the virtual world economy:

Should landowners pass along their savings - I have the feeling a lot will, to remain competetive - their tenants will recover a lot of the increase. It's also very likely that, given an across the board drop in rental expenses, tenants will go for larger parcels of land (thus necessitating more sims) or use their savings to buy more Lindens. It's a win-win.

So that's one plausible forecast. "Lyn B" isn't so optimistic about how the L$ purchase fee increase will impact the company:

Will Linden Lab's New 15% Price Discount on SL Sim Tier & Increase on L$ Purchase Fees Hurt or Help the Company? NWN Does the Rough Math

For Second Life's 15th anniversary, some 15-themed news from Linden Lab:

Effective July 2, monthly maintenance fees on Private Estates are dropping by up to 15%! In addition, one-time land set-up fees are also reduced by as much as 41%. And remember, the setup fee includes your first month’s payment... Education/Nonprofit (EDU/NP) discounted full islands will be re-priced to maintain their 50% discount off the regularly priced full islands. The new price of $124.50 will go into effect at the start of that island's next invoiced billing term.

According to Tyche's latest SL economic data, there's now 15,969 private sims on the grid, So by making this discount, Linden Lab is taking an annual hit of a few million dollars a year about $8 million per year [Update: See Comments].

But wait, Linden Lab has a way of offsetting that discount -- raising the price of L$ purchases by 50 cents:

Have Second Life Users Given Up Promoting & Defending Second Life?

Interesting /secondlife thread provoked by a passionate and inspiring (verging on bombastic) video by SLer Luca, who created it as a way of rallying the Second Life community (watch below) to defend the virtual world against inaccurate/lazy mainstream reporting about it, like in the Digg story last week. The response from most SLers in the thread, however, isn't so enthused:

... SL has everything from good to bad but "people are having fun chatting" is not news worthy, the lack of fun news promoting SL comes from Linden Lab's awful marketing department...

... I'll promote SL when we get new features more often than one major thing every 5 years...

... We used to evangelize .. we don't anymore.

That last comment from an actual host of /secondlife! Quite a change from a few years ago or more, when a badly written mainstream article on Second Life would inevitably lead to hordes of SLers posting angry online comments (mainly through comment profiles featuring furry avatars). Why the attitudinal change?