New World Notes

Three Fundamental Flaws in Meta’s Vision for the Metaverse

There’s a new long essay on Meta’s vision for the Metaverse from Nick Clegg, formerly a UK politician and now President of Global Affairs at Meta. (He was the company’s point person when Facebook and Instagram’s many failings were brought under harsh public scrutiny.) Given his position at the social media giant, Clegg’s essay has deep insights into Meta’s vision and strategy for the Metaverse. Give it a read, we’ll be here when you come back.

There’s actually much about it that I agree with, but with Meta putting the most money into Metaverse development of any company by far, it’s more important to point out key flaws which suggest a fundamental misunderstanding of how metaverse platforms work (and don’t work).

For starters:

Assuming that immersive 3D interaction is a “logical” evolution of text, voice, and video:

Clegg writes:

We don’t communicate through written words alone, so text-based internet services would never suffice. Static images are an important part of how we communicate, as are sounds and moving images. But we interact in three dimensions. We use multiple senses, body language, spatial awareness. We signify our intention to trust one another by looking each other in the eye, smiling, or warmly shaking hands. We express our feelings towards loved ones not only by saying what we feel but by expressing it physically. We show joy, sadness or anger through nonverbal cues that are embodied and experienced rather than written down.

Advances in speed and availability of connectivity have now reached a point that begins to make many of these three-dimensional interactions possible virtually. It is therefore logical that the next step in the evolution of the internet is one that reflects this.

Note the jazz hands employed to cover that last non sequitur. While it’s true that immersive 3D interaction is now much more feasible and affordable, it does not follow that it’s by and large more desirable than video or even text. Facetime was launched for the iPhone in 2013, but 75% of Gen Z and Millennials still prefer to text. And despite its affordable price point, the slow sales of Meta’s own Quest 2 headset should undermine any confidence that immersive communication is the next inevitable step. (As opposed to a successful niche.)

More questionable assumptions:

Watch: What Social VR / Metaverse Platforms Can Learn About User Safety from 2D Virtual Worlds

Here's the latest talk from Linden Lab veteran Jim "Babbage" Purbrick, who applied what he learned from Second Life and other pioneering virtual worlds in his work for Eve Online and Meta, with the focus here on user safety, i.e. keeping annoyances from trolls and other bad actors in the virtual world down to a dull roar.  

These are lessons, as he tells me, "from older, 2D and text-based virtual worlds [that] are often ignored by VR developers. This talk shows how we applied those lessons to Oculus Venues.

"Technologies change, people stay the same."

This is true. One key lesson Jim and his team applied was real time responses to active harassment. (Starting at around 29 minutes in.) If a troll is scurrying about causing problems during a live event, they need to be dealt with in real time, not after abuse reports have been filed by users and processed the next day: 

Metaverse: "The" or "A", Capital or Lower Case: A Naming Convention Proposal

I wrote out a definition of the Metaverse recently taken directly from Snow Crash citations -- my futile attempt to address the slew of "No one knows what the Metaverse is or when it will exist!" media coverage. Now here's another abuse worth addressing that sets my avatar's teeth on edge, as recently seen in a tweet from Gartner*, a highly reputed analyst firm:

It is expected that a Metaverse will provide persistent, decentralized, collaborative and interoperable opportunities and business models that will enable organizations to extend digital business

There. Is. No. Such. Thing. As. "A" Metaverse.

Here's my own naming convention, based again on Snow Crash, and on whatever expertise on this topic I can claim:

Watch: Improbable Demos Hundreds of Concurrent VOIP-Enabled Players in Close Proximity

As promised: company Town Hall for ⁦@Improbableio⁩ with m2 tech, same as we are using for otherside. All art placeholder. Everyone can speak in game. pic.twitter.com/FX5W9XBJrB

— Herman Narula (@HermanNarula) May 12, 2022

I haven't really written about Improbable in a couple years, when the single-shard MMO infrastructure startup/developer was struggling with heavy losses. This new local concurrency demo video is impressive, especially if (as CEO Herman Narula claims), the hundreds of people in-world everyone can also use VOIP.

Last month, by the way, Improbable spun out a (wait for it!) metaverse technology network called M2:

Watch: What VRChat Gets About the Metaverse That Meta Does Not

While VRChat does not actually describe itself as a metaverse platform (yet?), it is by far the leading contender in that space. I feel like I've been writing about that little appreciated theme for at least the last couple years, but this new video from Quintin Smith (Wired, Edge, Eurogamer) of People Make Games makes that case with copious interviews and examples (several of which I've also featured here, see below) and in a far more charming accent.

His video is a great and golden respite from the deluge of putative "metaverse" stories which generally turn out to be NFT-flavored cash grabs, or just as questionable, the latest bland announcement from Meta or another corporate giants. But as Quint tells me, they are missing something key about platforms like these:

The Sandbox's Terms of Service Says You Don't Actually Own NFTs Associated With The Sandbox

While I've written about how The Sandbox's blockchain-based metaverse platform has a small user base despite (because of?) NFT sales from major brands, Indiana University associate law professor João Marinotti recently made an equally salient point -- you don't actually own the NFTs associated with The Sandbox:

If The Sandbox “reasonably believes” you engaged in any of the platform’s prohibited activities, which require subjective judgments about whether you interfered with others’ “enjoyment” of the platform, it may immediately suspend or terminate your user account and delete your NFT’s images and descriptions from its platform. It can do this without any notice or liability to you.

In fact, The Sandbox even claims the right in these cases to immediately confiscate any NFTs it deems you acquired as a result of the prohibited activities. How it would successfully confiscate blockchain-based NFTs is a technological mystery, but this raises further questions about the validity of what it calls virtual ownership.

The Conversation reached out to The Sandbox for comment but did not receive a response.

Much more here. I took the screengrab here from The Sandbox's Terms of Service, and the terms are as drastic as Marinotti describes them.

I don't necessarily blame The Sandbox for having such a drastic "in case of emergency break glass" clause to cover itself.

Metaverse Content Creators in Developing Nations Can Do Quite Well -- Once They Break Into the Market (Comment of the Week)

Great comment from a reader based in Brazil, expanding on my point (and that of a fellow Brazilian) about the difficulty for metaverse content creators in the developing world to succeed, due to high costs of entry:

It works the other way round too, the $ is very valuable and gets me a higher standard of living than using that dollar in the USA.

I can eat well, afford rent and my bills, all from Second Life content creation. Adobe prices their monthly subscriptions in the local currency too, but yes [avatar software creation tool] Marvelous Designer is very expensive compared to Adobe's monthly subs.

Reader "Reiille" from Mexico, echoes that point:

 1 USD is worth 20 pesos to us, which of course, if you earn that back in revenue, it can be a huge financial help. I myself have been trying to break into the market, but the investment to be made to put a new brand out there is more than I can afford, so it's been a slow burn. 

So while breaking into a relatively static market* like Second Life is difficult for creators in the developing world, once they do break in, they have a tremendous edge:

Throwback Thursday: Wild Metaverse Predictions We Experts Made... in 2006

While it may seem strange to believe -- unless you're a longtime reader of this blog -- all the wild forecasts and grand pronouncements about the Metaverse that you're reading now across the media have been made before, over a 15 years ago. (Maybe even wilder!)

Back in 2006, I was part of a "Metaverse Roadmap" conference which brought together a who's who of tech experts including virtual world pioneer Randy Farmer and professor/Internet activist Ethan Zuckerman, who all gathered at the famed Silicon Valley think tank SRI International thinktank. The website as still online.

To be sure, many of the great minds gathered there (Ethan notable among them) were skeptical that the Metaverse would be as big and transformative as quickly as the rest of us imagined. But looking at the pronouncements we made back then is a nice exercise in humility. Here are some of the metaverse predictions we made, charactered in terms of future news headlines:

Future headlines from 2011-2016:

• Metaverse citizens secede en masse from nation states
• 50% of US patents based on metaverse collaborative projects; first application of international IP rights regime
• ITU demands influence over metaverse naming system on behalf of developing nations
• Organized crime destroys 10% of virtual wealth from exploitation of protocol; well-known avatar arrested
• 5% of GDP of developing nations based on metaverse economy

That last prediction, cringeingly enough, was made by me. None of these have come to pass, though I suppose you could make the case that a variation of "Organized crime destroys 10% of virtual wealth" has happened with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency.

Speaking of which, many of our Metaverse Roadmap predictions did pretty much bear out:

Watch My Introduction to the Metaverse Webinar for Innovision 2022

Starting at around 53:55, here's my webinar on the Metaverse for last week's InnoVision conference from Canada, pretty much a ground level introduction to the topic covering:

Why Meta's Retail Stores Miss Where the Metaverse is Most Powerful

What's our evidence that Meta's Metaverse strategy is helplessly muddled? Well, there's Business Insider confirming what I reported, citing an insider last year. But even more evident is Meta trying to market its metaverse platform in the real world:

Meta said Monday that its first physical retail space will open on May 9 in Burlingame, California. The store will be at Meta’s Reality Labs complex, the office where its engineers work on technologies like virtual and augmented reality... Although Meta will sell its video chatting device Portal and Ray-Ban Stories glasses on site, most of the store’s real estate will be dedicated to showcasing the Oculus headset, a Meta spokesman said. That makes sense given Zuckerberg’s reportedly obsessive focus on the metaverse lately.    

The practical difficulties are many. As I discussed with Bloomberg's Parmy Olson:

Wagner James Au, author of “The Making of Second Life,” who blogs regularly about metaverse platforms, says Meta can’t underestimate the psychological barriers to introducing people to VR. “I’ve worked for metaverse platforms and you really have to wrap your arms around someone and manipulate their head and their face while you put this headset on them.” 

And that was a challenge requiring "VR condoms" even before there was, you know, a deadly global pandemic. But even beyond those issues, the fundamental problem is this: