New World Notes

Neal Stephenson's Lamina1 Publishes New Metaverse-as-a-Service White Paper -- But Do Consumers Really Want Its Alternative to Walled Gardens? CPO Tony Parisi Replies

Here's an epic new white paper on the Metaverse-as-a-Service platform from Lamina1, co-founded by literal Neal Stephenson (who I interviewed about it here).

The paper itself is co-authored by Lamina1 CPO Tony Parisi, who's pretty much been striving to build the Metaverse ever since Snow Crash was published in the 90s, starting with the web-based VRML. 

Sample section on how Lamina1 will offer a blockchain-based payment solution to current metaverse platforms:

Specialized metachains allow for the creation of blockchain-based applications and experiences in ways that overcome the limitations of today’s monolithic chains.

Additionally, they allow for a much wider variety of businesses and use cases than today’s metaverse “walled gardens,” empowering the users and the market –– rather than a centralized, risk-averse entity focused on specific business models –– to decide on the value of things that get made...

All of this could one day lead to a world where metaverse experiences are actually interoperable, are accessible and usable, and are able to persistently scale, adapt, and grow – no matter the size or scale of the endeavor. Which brings us full circle back to the mission of Metaverse-as-a-Service: To provide builders and creators with a usable, flexible, and decentralized framework to create the next generation of online worlds.

I love the idea of empowering users and creators for sure, but whether blockchain and other web3 concepts are the solution there remains very much in doubt -- read this incisive guest post on that very topic by virtual world pioneer Richard Bartle.

As for "walled gardens" -- i.e. Roblox, Fortnite, Second Life, etc. -- this brings up a question on my mind for years: Consumers actually seem to prefer them, especially when it comes to metaverse platforms.

Here's how I put that point to Tony -- and his response:

Watch: Powerful Tribute to VRChat -- and the True Metaverse Ideal

 

This is a pretty powerful tribute to the VRChat community and the creativity they've wrought on the platform thus far -- and as created and narrated by Raergur, the video expresses the essential appeal of the Metaverse ideal too:

Built by and for the community, by real people. This is the real Metaverse. I've met so many beautiful souls people I never would have met otherwise, now lifetime friends I deeply and genuinely love.

Inside, you meet the most diverse people from around the world, but yet can interact with them as if they're right there in the room with you... We all come from vastly different lives. And this diversity gives fruit to such amazing experiences.

It's a place where any idea can be made and shared. We get to escape into the world people dreamt about in their mind, explore them and get lost in the stories people want to tell. We get to touch the cathedrals people have built in their minds.

Profoundly put (and visualized). Somewhat surprisingly, Raergur was not an active virtual world explorer before VRChat, he tells me, and first came across it through various meme videos on YouTube. But he's now a deep denizen of VRChat, where he created an avatar inspired by his interest in werewolves, while forming fast friendships through the power of immersion:

Making a Metaverse That Matters: Pre-Order Links & Info for My Book Here!

Excited to start promoting my book, coming out this June on Second Life's 20th anniversary!

Please pre-order my book on Amazon here

Or on Barnes & Noble here

Or on Bookshop.org benefiting indie bookstores here

I'll try to keep the plugging down to a dull roar for the sanity of regular New World Notes readers. Pre-orders are super important to helping encourage getting the book in stores, so I'd be grateful if you consider putting an order in.

Some logistical background and answers to fairly frequent questions:

Yes, an e-book / Kindle version will be available starting in June.

Yes, it will be available for international Amazon customers, also starting in June.

If you're currently in the media, yes, I can send you a review copy now. Hit me up on Twitter or on LinkedIn.

Yes, there's a discount for bulk orders and I'm fairly available to do speaking/signing appearances over the next few months, especially in the greater LA area.

Some book highlights include:

When Will We Get AI-Powered Virtual World NPCs? Seasoned MMO Game Designers Weigh the Possibilities & Perils

Screencap of generative agent simulation -- playable here

Last week I wrote about the game developer who incorporated ChatGPT into his NPC-to-player conversations in his virtual world; now comes an experiment with "generative agents" -- AI-powered NPCs, who talk with each other:

In the experiment, the researchers placed 25 generative agents within a virtual world resembling a sandbox video game, similar to The Sims. Each agent was assigned a unique background and participated in a two-day simulation. The study observed various remarkable behaviors:

One agent planned a party, informed several friends who then invited others, and collectively they coordinated the event.

Another agent decided to run for mayor, sparking organic discussions about their campaign and political stances among the community. Different agents held varying opinions on this candidate.

Some agents retained memories with human-like embellishments, occasionally imagining additional details or interpreting events with their own perspective.

Developed by AI researchers at Stanford (read their academic paper here), some enthusiasts are effusive about the implications, declaring, "Entire virtual worlds could be populated with these agents, producing emergent behaviors."

Definitely eventually, on some level -- but the practical applications are still pretty challenging:

"First," veteran game designer Damion Schubert tells me, "we're at the very infancy of this kind of technology. Both the technology and game designers' capacity to work with it and shape it are going to be very different even six months from now than it is now.

"Second, every game is a different design, and what you need NPCs to do in every game is very different. Chat GPT today could probably make NPCs that spewed out random dialogue and light worldbuilding facts, but it's a longer walk to, for example, have NPCs be at a Bioware Companion-level of intelligence. But there's a lot of room between those extremes!"

Damion, as it happens, was lead designer of Bioware's Star Wars: The Old Republic MMO.

I've been excited about GPT-powered NPCs for quite awhile, but thinking about actual multi-user virtual worlds I actually play and enjoy, not to mention single-player sandbox worlds like Skyrim, it's difficult to imagine autonomous agents wandering around on their own devices without it becoming a vexing traffic jam. Like, what happens when the town blacksmith who's supposed to upgrade your broadsword decides that he'd rather become a master of interpretive dance?

Damion again:

Watch: I'm on Yahoo Finance Talking About Defining the Metaverse & Meta's Failed Assumptions About It

Yahoo Finance has a new story, "Metaverse: ‘Assuming you need a VR headset is just repeating Meta’s assumptions,’ author says" that I'm somewhat biased about liking, because well, I'm the author. It's taken from a panel from a few hours ago (watch a clip above), where we get into the definition of the Metaverse, its use cases, and related topics.

"The last 2 years of Metaverse hype has been driven by people who didn't really read Snow Crash," I argue. "But the real metaverse developers have been using Snow Crash as a direct reference for the last 30 years."

In preparation for this segment, the Yahoo producers sent me some questions beforehand, some of which we covered but much that we didn't:

Here's Why March 2023 is the Month Which Launched Metaverse 2.0

In my personal narrative for the evolution of the Metaverse, I'd arrange the historical timeline roughly (and very simply) this way:

Metaverse zero point, 1992-1996: Snow Crash published; VRML and several very early metaverse platforms launched, including Active Worlds and Cybertown.

Metaverse 1.0, 2003-2008: Second Life launched, along with a number of other metaverse-aspirational virtual worlds including Roblox in 2006.

Metaverse 1.5, 2014-2022: Facebook purchases Oculus and its "Path to the Metaverse"; VRChat, Rec Room, and other next gen metaverse platforms launched; Fortnite's crossover success and Roblox's huge IPO and Matt Ball's essays help catalyze excitement and awareness around the concept within the mainstream business world, culminating in Facebook changing its name to Meta.

Skepticism over Meta's approach to the Metaverse, not to mention crypto, started toward the end of 2022, echoed by Meta itself, when its roadmap to the future failed to mention "the Metaverse" even once. Unsurprisingly, an internal survey of Meta staff last January showed waning confidence in the Metaverse, while a leaked presentation last February also showed Meta execs deigning to mention the Metaverse behind closed doors. 

With Meta effectively out of the picture, it's fair to say Metaverse 2.0 started this month:

Tim Sweeney: Set Aside NFT & VR Hype, Metaverse Platforms Already Have 600 Million Users Now, "Billions" by This Decade

In case you missed it, Tim Sweeney laid out his vision for the Metaverse last week after his company Epic unleashed a number of metaverse platform-related announcements -- watch above at around 1 hour in: 

Let's take a long term look at what we see here. And the core of it is some very real growth. Starting with Fortnite's 70 million monthly active users, Roblox's 250 million monthly active users, Minecraft's 100 million, and PubG mobile and Apex Legends, and numerous other metaverse-inspired games, is leading to an identifiable audience today of over 600 million active users in these virtual worlds. And it's on a growth trajectory that'll put it at billions of users by the end of this decade.

So we can set aside the crazy hype cycle around NFTs and VR goggles. These technologies may play a role in the future but they are not required. This revolution is happening right now. And the core of it is something every gamer already understands. It's you and your friends, getting together online and going around as a group on voice chat, having a fun time and social entertainment experiences. And some of these experiences are serious games like Battle Royale. Some of them are going to a concert and dancing or chatting with friends and just having a good time. We see this as the next big change in gaming and then Epic's evolution as a company.

Hard agree on the hype around NFTs and VR goggles (looking at you, Meta), while I'd quibble around the "billions" target -- 1 billion is more realistic. Fortnite, for example, has seen some slippage in its monthly active user numbers (though of course remains quite large).

Sweeney also got into his vision for the open metaverse:

Fortnite Becomes Much More of a Metaverse Platform with Unreal Editor Integration, Asset Store, Better Monetization for User Creators

Fortnite in recent years has been the least metaverse-ish of the leading metaverse platforms. While interviewing insiders for my book, my strong sense is that Epic hadn't originally anticipated outside brands considering the platform as a real world application platform, and assumed it would be more akin to a standard modding mode for gamers. And that as a publisher from the traditional AAA game industry, Epic was still holding a tight rein on the platform to protect its brand, even if that meant falling short of the Stephenson ideal.

"It's insane,” as one frustrated community creator puts it to me. “They want to be a part of this Metaverse, but they are limiting what can actually be done. If you're really wanting a true Metaverse, then more brands should be able to be in a space whether [Epic] wants to support it or not."

That all changed this week.

Epic made a series of announcements and updates during GDC 2023 that I'm still combing through, somewhat distracted by Rod Humble's Second Life-but-XXL mic drop.

For one, there's the integration of Unreal with Fortnite (watch above), enabling multi-user, multi-platform live editing. (Question: I wonder if live editing can some day be incorporated into published maps, enabling a creator to alter an experience around its user in real time.)  

And then as mentioned in the video, Epic is launching the Epic equivalent of the Unity Asset Store, called Fab:

 

4 Reasons to Doubt Generative AI Will Be as Transformative as All of Silicon Valley Apparently Thinks

Interesting Axios story illustrates just how much Silicon Valley has shifted its interest and investment into Generative AI startups like OpenAI and Midjourney, away from metaverse platforms and related technology:

According to PitchBook data compiled by Axios Media Deals' Tim Baysinger, through March 16, 2022, companies that played in the metaverse or web3 space had raised nearly $2 billion in funding.

So far this year, metaverse and web3 companies have raised $586.7 million, a bit more than a quarter of last year's total. The totals for generative AI companies are the inverse: Through March 16, 2022, the generative AI space saw $612.8 million in funding. This year, it's up to $2.3 billion.

Driving the news: In a note Tuesday announcing Meta would lay off 10,000 more employees, Zuckerberg spotlighted AI work and reduced the metaverse to an "also." “Our single largest investment is in advancing AI and building it into every one of our products,” Zuckerberg wrote. “Our leading work building the metaverse and shaping the next generation of computing platforms also remains central to defining the future of social connection.”

As I've explained before, conflating web3 with the Metaverse is a huge mistake, as is assuming Meta leads the metaverse industry. That aside, it's clearly the case that the Valley has shifted its buzz toward generative AI.

Is that smart? Obviously I'm biased when I say this, but there's already 520 million+ active users across many metaverse platforms, while the Metaverse's addressable market is at minimum everyone who regularly enjoys muti-user immersive experiences (i.e. 3D games online), roughly 1-2 billion people.

On the other side, there's several reasons to believe Generative AI is not as transformative as its most bullish boosters assume. For instance:

Backstory on Frontlines: Roblox's Viral, AAA-Quality FPS Not a Huge Hit (Yet)

Above: Frontlines' Daily Active User rate via RoMonitor Stats

Last week I described Frontlines, a Roblox game experience with newly updated AAA-level graphics and gameplay, as an amazing breakthrough in metaverse platform technology; I even said it showed how Roblox could be a competitor against Steam itself. That's still true, but here's a somewhat important qualifier to that:

Frontlines doesn't seem to be making much money, and it's definitely not a hit by Roblox standards. Not yet, at least.

According to RoMonitor stats, Frontlines is regularly attracting Daily Active Users in the mid-six figures, with concurrency levels in the low-to-mid four figures. If we're comparing it to a Steam game, that's quite good! Easily placing it among the Top 200 most popular games on Steam out of thousands of available titles.

By Roblox standards, however, Frontlines is not a huge hit; on Roblox, the top games have concurrency levels in the mid-five figures to the mid-six figures. Brookhaven, a mini-MMO that's usually the #1 Roblox experience, has DAU rates between 30-60 million.

Frontlines' monetization rates have not yet been officially reported, but the developer is selling IAPs -- mostly weapon expansions, ranging from 50 cents to $5.00.

But how many players are actually buying those?

I talked on background with a Roblox creator who's behind some of the top experiences on the platform, and they made some rough estimates' of Frontlines' revenue: