New World Notes

I Seriously Doubt Apple Will Put Out Its XR Headset Next Year. Here's Why

Citing The Information, Mac Rumors has a report that gives me some serious red flags:

The first AR/VR headset that Apple has in development will need to be wirelessly tethered to an iPhone or another Apple device to unlock full functionality... It will be similar to the WiFi-only version of the Apple Watch, which requires an ‌iPhone‌ connection to work. The headset is meant to wirelessly communicate with another Apple device, which will handle most of the powerful computing...

TSMC is manufacturing the chips that will be used in the headset, and mass production is said to be at least a year away. The first AR/VR headset could be released as soon as 2022, but the launch could also be pushed back if work on the device is not completed in time.'

Emphasis mine, because I'd be vastly surprised if Apple put out its headset next year. Or even the next next year. Here's why:

Inside Horizon Workrooms: Oculus Vet Jim Purbrick on Mapping Real Offices to Virtual Spaces -- and How His Team Used It During the Pandemic For Their Own Meetings

Last week's launch of Facebook's Horizon Workrooms garnered a lot of guffaws due to its sheer Zuckerbergian much-ness, but beneath the VR-for-office meetings platform is some impressive tech.

On his blog, Jim "Babbage" Purbrick (who helped lead development of Workrooms)  goes into detail on a key Workrooms feature -- virtual mapping of the user's real meeting location/surroundings:

[Workrooms] shows you an entirely virtual environment, but asks you to indicate the position of real world objects like your desk in a process which feels like a more detailed guardian setup process. Workrooms then positions your avatar in the virtual world so that your real desktop aligns with your virtual desktop.

When you reach out and touch the virtual desk your hands touch the real desk. As long as the important virtual objects within arms reach are mapped to real objects, the virtual environment can be much bigger than the available real space while maintaining the illusion that every virtual object can be touched as well as seen.

Jim (who left Facebook late last year) allows that this is not the type of set-up you want to be strapped into for your entire day: "Currently you wouldn't want to use a Quest all day," as he puts it. "But you could easily attend several typical hour long meetings a day without feeling uncomfortable."

Throughout the pandemic, the Oculus group developing Workrooms would actually use their own platform to hold meetings:

Jim "Babbage" Purbrick Brings His Second Life-Based Work Experience to Help Develop Facebook's Horizon Workrooms

Facebook's new Horizon Workroom, a Quest 2-based virtual space for companies and organizations (just announced today) is the latest major project that's an unacknowledged descendant of Second Life: One of its lead developers was Jim "Babbage" Purbrick, who brought his own experience as a remote worker for Linden Lab who used SL itself as a collaborative space to Workroom. 

"Very happy to see it out after lots of lobbying that VR for work shouldn't just be an aspirational future dream for Michael Abrash keynotes, but something that could be useful now," as Jim puts it to me now, who left Facebook last year. "Something I was convinced about because Second Life had already been useful for work, as discussed here." (Jim last featured on on New World Notes here.)

The Facebook project was actually started before the pandemic, and enables up to 16 Quest 2 users to be in the same virtual space, with 50 others able to join by video streaming. Despite Second Life being a seed of its inspiration, Jim tells me he's most psyched by its mixed reality features:

Facebook Horizon Beset By Turnover, Lack of Prioritization, Says Insider

With Mark Zuckerberg announcing that Facebook has plans to become a Metaverse company, regular readers might ask, "Wait, weren't they already building a Metaverse?"

I'm talking of course about Facebook Horizon, released in closed beta last September, optimized to run with the Oculus Quest 2 HMD that was also released about that time. However, it has since seemingly fallen below, well, the horizon.

A Facebook veteran with deep knowledge of Horizon tells me the project might be revived, but faces some corporate barriers inherent to the company:

"I think Facebook has the money and people to throw at the problem," as they put it to me, "but making 0-1 products as a large entity hasn't been one of Facebook's strong suits... it's been to acquire other products and integrate them into the Facebook ecosystem. With the average employee tenure being 2 years or so, and the need to expand teams at rapid rates, it's very difficult to make decisions and stick to a single vision because things are always changing."

Consequently, they go on, the Horizon team has been jumping haphazardly to the latest hot feature or platform:

Quest 2's Install Base Confirmed as "About 4 Million" Due to Face Rash Recall - UPDATE: 4M May Refer Only to US-Based Quest 2s

Update, 7:18pm PT: While a Facebook spokesperson says this recall impacts Quest 2 owners "globally", it's unclear if "about 4 million" refers to the total install base worldwide, or just US-based owners. In a discussion on this post among VR developers (ironically on Facebook), Adam Frisby estimates the total Quest 2 install base worldwide to be around 5 million.

Last April many VR enthusiasts were seriously skeptical when I estimated that Facebook had sold about 3-4 million Quest 2 sets (extrapolating from Facebook's extremely coy revenue reports). Today we have official confirmation that this install range estimate is accurate, due to the most hilariously ironic turn of events --Facebook gave people a face rash:

Facebook says it is “participating in a voluntary recall of the Quest 2 removable facial interface in coordination with the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC).” The CPSC said about “4 million” facial interfaces are affected by the recall, plus 172,600 in Canada, sold between October 2020 and July 2021 — the interfaces come with each headset sold as well as sold separately for $20 or for $40 as part of a Fit Pack...

[A Facebook spokesperson said:] "That is why we started our voluntary facial interface replacement program in December, and are now rolling out the silicone cover for all Quest 2 and Quest 2 Fit Kit owners globally.”

Well, not so hilarious if you're one of the Quest 2 owners now with dealing with a face rash. (Pro-tip: Target has a good deal on hydrocortisone cream.)

4 million is relatively good install base for a VR product only on the market since late last year -- but is still far from Zuckerberg's 10 million install base goal. (Which is still many tens of millions less than the install base for current video game consoles, but leave that go for now.)

Now that we know this, perhaps Facebook will be more open about their Quest sales in future shareholder reports.

Facebook Moving Oculus to Support Industry Standard OpenXR

I usually blog any Facebook/Oculus news with this irresistible pic of Zuckerberg striding like a dictator through the opiated masses in VR, but I'll give him some credit in this case:

VRChat User Survey Results: Profile of a Passionate Virtual World Community

Here's the key results of my VRChat user survey with beloved VRC reporter Syrmor, primarily drawn from subscribers of his YouTube channel and my virtual world blog New World Notes. While it's not wholly scientific and has a relatively small sample size of 165 respondents, it is (I believe!) the first public survey of the rapidly growing and evolving virtual world community. 

Which takes us right to the question above: Asked what they most love about VRChat, respondents overwhelmingly selected "Community":

"Personally I can say that VRChat has made life better for me as a whole," as user Fryman574 puts it. "I've had the ability to join communities I would have never known about if it weren't for VRC... [and] I've been able to meet so many cool people; like one of the best things to do in VRChat in my opinion is finding someone who has a story to tell and spend your day talking to this person. That's actually how I was able to meet my boyfriend of 6 months now."

Like this person and many others, VRC user Flamant says this community has offered social connections that have been difficult to find in the material world:

"I can be myself around other people in VRChat which is something i have always struggled with, with my social anxiety. And in that way it has helped me forge an identity as a person, now being able to be vulnerable and open myself up to others without fear. I have met some truly kind people in this virtual world that has come to feel more like a home than my actual surroundings..."

Next up: Avatar/ real life gender identity, how they first discovered VRChat, other virtual worlds VRC users play, VR usage, and much more:

VRChat Raises $80 Million in Venture Funding, Proving the Metaverse is So Far VR's Most Successful Application

For some reason this huge news hasn't yet been picked up by any of the major tech outlets that I can see, but VRChat just raised $80 million in funding:

The VRChat team is excited to announce that we have closed an $80M Series D investment round. This latest financing was led by Anthos Capital, alongside existing investors Makers Fund, GFR fund and others. We welcome Anthos and are proud to have them on board!

This new investment will allow us to expand the VRChat team, iterate on the platform and grow our community. This includes the ability for creators to earn and enable more people around the world to access VRChat. Partners like Anthos Capital open unique opportunities to help us further our goal as a virtual universe.

As a reference point to how huge this funding round is, consider the fact that in 2017, VRChat only raised $4 million. Defying the bearish performance of nearly all other VR-related startups since then, usage has continued to grow since then, with monthly active users I'd estimate to be in the low six figures -- and even more notable, 1 in 3 daily users (i.e. about 40,000-100,000) logged in via HMDs, With VRChat concurrent numbers starting to pass Second Life's CCU this year, I'd estimate VRChat now has over 1 million monthly active users (and that's probably a conservative guess).

Looking at larger market, VRChat is one of the most-used VR applications, easily eclipsing usage of high-end games like Half Life: Alyx and indie hits like Beat Saber. And far as funding goes,  take a look at this:

Quest Owner Survey: 74% Say They Probably or Definitely Won't Buy VR Apps Which Have Ads -- But I Doubt Facebook Cares

Here's results of my survey aimed at Quest owners, asking if they would buy VR apps for their headset if it contains ads. (As Facebook recently announced would start happening soon.)

Of the 50 respondents, a majority answered that they would never buy or use a Quest app with ads, while a much smaller 18% answered that they are less likely to buy/use an app with ads. That effectively comes out to 3 in 4 Quest owners surveyed who are negative about ads.

By contrast, only 10% of respondents said they were receptive to Quest app ads if this made a given app lower cost or free.  (I'm personally somewhat surprised more did not answer this way.)

So Quest owners are overwhelmingly negative about ads in their apps! However, I doubt Oculus owner Facebook cares all that much:

Quest Owner Survey: Will Ads in Apps Change Which Ones You Buy & Use?

As you likely saw yesterday, Facebook inevitably announced plans to test VR ads in Quest apps:

We’re starting a small test of in-headset ads with a few developers in the coming weeks. We want to help developers generate revenue and help people find great experiences at better prices—this is a part of how we’ll create a healthy, self-sustaining platform for everyone.  

Rather than editorialize on the policy itself, I'm curious what this means for Quest owners. If you own a Quest or definitely plan to buy one soon, please answer this survey.